An early look at the bracket and teams on the fence

	Atlanta   Oakland (1) Duke (16) Southern/ Georgia Southern (8) Creighton (9) Kentucky (5) Oklahoma (12) Western Ky. (4) Georgetown (13) Kent St. (6) George Wash. (11) Nevada (3) Illinois (14) Winthrop (7) Washington (10) Bucknell (2) West Virginia (15) IUPUI (1) Villanova (16) Fairleigh Dickinson (8) George Mason (9) Alabama (5) Iowa (12) Maryland (4) UCLA (13) Iona (6) North Carolina (11) UAB (3) Florida (14) Murray State (7) Michigan (10) Syracuse (2) Texas (15) N. Arizona Wash. D.C.   Minneapolis (1) Connecticut (16) Belmont (8) Cal (9) Indiana (5) Northern Iowa (12) Arkansas (4) N.C. State (13) UW-Mil. (6) Kansas (11) UNC-Wilm. (3) Ohio State (14) NWestern St. (7) Seton Hall (10) S. Illinois (2) Tennessee (15) Pacific (1) Memphis (16) Delaware St. (8) Arizona (9) Marquette (5) LSU (12) Missouri St. (4) Michigan St. (13) San Diego St. (6) Boston College (11) Colorado (3) Pittsburgh (14) Penn (7) Wisconsin (10) Wichita St. (2) Gonzaga (15) Albany Bracket updated through Feb. 12, 2006.

It's the Year of the Mid-Major here in Bracketland. With four weeks to go until Selection Sunday, teams like Northern Iowa, George Mason, Bucknell and Wichita State are in far better shape than Iowa State, Cincinnati, Stanford or Louisville. In fact the Missouri Valley Conference, with a staggering five teams in the RPI top 30, has more berths in my first projected bracket than the Big 12 or Pac-10.

Below is a conference-by-conference breakdown of this year's NCAA tournament bubble picture. The field was selected as if Selection Sunday was Feb. 12. I'll be doing a new projection weekly for the rest of the season.

ACC

Locks (4): Duke (23-1, No. 1 RPI), N.C. State (19-5, No. 21), North Carolina (15-6, No. 23), Boston College (19-5, No. 29)

Bubble teams (3): Maryland (15-8, No. 41), Virginia (12-9, No. 56), Florida State (15-6, No. 67)

Projected bids (5): Duke, N.C. State, North Carolina, Boston College, Maryland

Synopsis: The Terps are teetering dangerously due to a 1-6 record against the RPI Top 50 and a 2-6 road record. The 'Noles are 5-5 in the conference but have yet to beat any of the conference's top five.

Atlantic 10

Locks (1): George Washington (20-1, No. 37)

Bubble teams (2): Temple (13-9, No. 57), Xavier (14-7, No. 74)

Projected bids (1): George Washington

Synopsis: The Owls have quality wins against Maryland and Alabama, but their case is weakened by the fact that they're sitting in seventh place (6-5) in a mediocre conference. Xavier is fading in a hurry.

Big 12

Locks (3): Texas (21-3, No. 8), Oklahoma (16-5, No. 14), Kansas (17-6, No. 43)

Bubble teams (3): Colorado (16-5, No. 49), Iowa State (14-9, No. 63), Texas A&M (15-7, No. 78)

Projected bids (4): Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado

Synopsis: The Buffs would help themselves considerably with a win over one of the three locks. The Cyclones, 4-6 in the league, are fading, while the Aggies' light nonconference schedule is dragging them down.

Big East

Locks (5): Villanova (19-2, No. 3), Connecticut (22-1, No. 5), Pittsburgh (19-3, No. 6), West Virginia (18-5, No. 18), Georgetown (17-5, No. 25)

Bubble teams (5): Syracuse (16-7, No. 27), Cincinnati (16-9, No. 32), Seton Hall (15-7, No. 33), Marquette (16-7, No. 36), Louisville (16-8, No. 65)

Projected bids (8): Villanova, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Marquette

Synopsis: If the season ended today, the committee would dismiss Cincinnati because it has gone 3-7 since losing forward Armein Kirkland. Syracuse's 1-7 record against Top 50 teams puts it on somewhat shaky ground, while Louisville, 4-7 in the Big East, needs a strong finish.

Big Ten

Locks (5): Ohio State (18-3, No. 7), Iowa (19-6, No. 9), Michigan State (17-6, No. 11), Illinois (20-4, No. 13), Wisconsin (17-7, No. 16)

Bubble teams (2): Michigan (16-6, No. 31), Indiana (13-8, No. 35)

Projected bids (7): Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana

Synopsis: The Wolverines and Hoosiers are still in decent shape but have both lost three straight. With the turmoil surrounding Mike Davis's status, Indiana can't afford a further collapse.

Colonial

Locks (1): George Mason (19-5, No. 28)

Bubble teams (4): UNC-Wilmington (19-7, No. 45), Old Dominion (17-8, No. 51), Hofstra (18-4, No. 54), VCU (16-7, No. 64)

Projected bids (2): George Mason, UNC-Wilmington

Synopsis: An exceptionally strong year in the Colonial (10th in conference RPI) could merit two berths. Best bet for an at-large is UNC-Wilmington, which at 12-3 is just a game behind George Mason. The Seahawks split their series with the Patriots and lost a close game at Wisconsin.