With no clear favorite, I'm going with one tough team 

	Are Adam Morrison and third-seeded Gonzaga capable of winning the national championship? Robert Beck/SI
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Upon examining this year's NCAA tournament bracket, three observations immediately jump to mind:

1. The Atlantic 10 really misses Jameer Nelson.

2. Someone on the selection committee must have a 17-year-old son who wants to get into the Air Force Academy.

3. Who the heck is the favorite in this thing?

Anything can happen in the NCAA tournament -- and here's guessing anything and everything will happen in this one. There is no team that, like North Carolina last year, scares the living bejesus out of people. There is no team that, like Illinois last year, seems to have that magical aura of destiny. But there are about 27 teams that, like Michigan State last year, are sitting there non-threateningly in the middle of the bracket right now just waiting to spring up and terrorize your office pool.

In a year in which one can easily foresee just about any of the high seeds winning the whole thing -- or just as easily see them crumbling in the second round -- there's only one logical way to pick a national champion: process of elimination.

Gonzaga (No. 3 seed, Oakland): With all due respect to Adam Morrison, the 'Zags would only be my national title pick if the Final Four was being played at the Kennel, with WCC refs, and the opponent was Loyola Marymount or San Francisco.

North Carolina (No. 3 seed, Washington, D.C.): I can definitely see the baby-faced Heels going all the way ... next year.

Iowa (No. 3 seed, Atlanta): There's no questioning coach Steve Alford's tournament record ... as long as we're talking about the Big Ten tournament.

Florida (No. 3 seed, Minneapolis): Fool's gold. The Gators did win the SEC tournament, but they did so by beating an LSU team playing without Tyrus Thomas in the semis and a barely .500 South Carolina team in the final.

UCLA (No. 2 seed, Oakland): The best testimonial to the Bruins is that they won both their conference's regular-season and tournament titles. The worst testimonial to the Bruins is that the conference in question is the Pac-10.

Tennessee (No. 2 seed, Washington, D.C.): Coach Bruce Pearl's full-court press could certainly wear out unprepared opponents. Unfortunately, it seems to have already worn out his own team. The Vols, apparently unbeknownst to the selection committee, have lost four of their last six.

Texas (No. 2 seed, Atlanta): The 'Horns had 31-, 21- and 17-point losses this season. I trust them to win six straight games about as much as I'd trust Isiah Thomas to manage my checkbook.

Ohio State (No. 2 seed, Minneapolis): The Buckeyes are tough. They're scrappy. They were the champions of a tough, scrappy conference. Unfortunately, in the NCAAs, they'll eventually run into a really athletic team they can't out-tough or out-scrap.

Memphis (No. 1 seed, Oakland): The Tigers may be the tourney's biggest wild card. They certainly showed they can play with anyone in the nonconference season -- but that was almost three months ago. It's hard to have faith in them against the elite teams that have been playing that level of competition all year.

Connecticut (No. 1 seed, Washington, D.C.): If you like to pick your national champion based on which team has the most future lottery picks, go with the Huskies. If, on the other hand, you have an aversion to teams that often play down to their competition and whose biggest star, Rudy Gay, can be extraordinarily passive ...

Duke (No. 1 seed, Atlanta): Ah, the Dukies. They're tempting. Real tempting. But as documented here a few days ago, the Blue Devils are susceptible to athletic teams that can exploit them in one-on-one matchups defensively. And there are quite a few of those type of teams (Texas, LSU, Syracuse) in their region.

But if not the Huskies or Blue Devils -- or any of the other teams mentioned previously -- then who? It seems the only choice left is ...

Villanova (No. 1 seed, Minneapolis): The 'Cats are tough. They're athletic. They can shoot. They defend. And with a lineup of two seniors (Allan Ray and Randy Foye), two juniors (Will Sheridan and Mike Nardi) and a sophomore (Kyle Lowry), they've got the greatest tourney asset of all -- experience. Some may knock the 'Cats' four-guard lineup, but it didn't seem to hinder them from going 14-2 in the Big East.

The only thing I can find wrong with them is Ray's injury to his eye, and it's supposed to be fine by Friday. It's going to take more than that for Villanova to get eliminated from my bracket.