Changes to BCS mean more mid-majors in big bowls

	Mid-major teams have much to dance about, as an extra BCS game gives them more of a chance to earn a BCS berth. AP
	What could have been If the new qualification rules had been in place previously, the following mid-majors would have played in BCS games Year Team Conference Record BCS rank 2005 TCU Mtn. West 10-1 No. 14* 2004 Utah Mtn. West 11-0 No. 6 2003 Miami (OH) MAC 12-1 No. 11 2000 TCU C-USA 10-1 No. 14** 1999 Marshall MAC 12-0 No. 12 1998 Tulane C-USA 11-0 No. 10 * -- higher than ACC champ Florida State (No. 22) ** -- higher than Big Ten champ Purdue (No. 17)
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When undefeated Utah crashed the Fiesta Bowl in 2004, it was, quite literally, a once-in-a-decade phenomenon. Not only did the Utes become the first team from outside the six major conferences to earn an automatic BCS berth since the system's 1998 inception, but they also were the first so-called "mid-major" to play in one of the four major bowls since Louisville in the Fiesta 14 years earlier. The last ones before that came in the late '70s.

It's about to become a whole lot more common.

At the time of the Utes' appearance, a team from the Mountain West, WAC or a similar conference had to finish in the top six of the BCS standings to be guaranteed a berth, a task considered to be near impossible. However, facing the pressure of a congressional investigation and a possible antitrust lawsuit, university presidents from the six BCS conferences reached a compromise with their non-BCS counterparts to add a fifth BCS game and grant easier access to lower-profile programs beginning this season. Now the standard is top 12 rather than top six (limit one), or top 16 if such a team is rated higher than the lowest-ranked major-conference champion.

"The door's open a little more with a [fifth] ball game," said TCU coach Gary Patterson, whose 11-1 team last season would have qualified for a bid under the new standards. "It's still tough, though, because you have to do it with one loss or no losses."

Just the fact that a one-loss non-BCS team is being mentioned as a possibility shows how much wider the door has opened for such teams. Previously, an undefeated season was an absolute necessity, and even that wasn't enough to help the likes of Tulane (1998), Marshall ('99) and Boise State (2004).

If the current standards had been in place since the BCS' inception, however, non-BCS teams would have reached one of the games in six of the past eight seasons (see chart), including the Green Wave and the Thundering Herd. Three of those six teams had one loss. "It's certainly a more friendly formula than it was previously," said Utah coach Kyle Whittingham. "You might not have to run the entire table."

With the BCS' new five-bowl model in place for the next four seasons, one might reasonably expect to see a non-BCS team make it three of the four years -- and perhaps as soon as this season. Coaches of potential contenders agree that such a team will likely need to meet the following criteria:

• Start the season ranked or at least with some national name recognition.

• Beat at least one decent BCS-conference opponent.

• Finish no worse than 11-1 (and the loss would have to come fairly early).

"You've got to beat someone early [from a BCS conference]," said Fresno State coach Pat Hill, "and then you've got to sit back and hope the people in front of you get beat."

That's exactly what happened when Utah made its BCS run in 2004. Coming off a 10-2 season, the Utes began the season ranked 20th in the AP poll and immediately moved up three spots after routing Texas A&M on national television in their first game. As the season progressed, the Utes kept clobbering people (including Arizona and North Carolina), while major-conference teams inevitably lost at least a couple of games, and Utah's rating steadily rose. It reached the top 10 by mid-October.

TCU, a regular 10-win team for much of this decade, was coming off an uncharacteristic 5-6 campaign when it stunned Oklahoma in last year's season opener. The Frogs debuted at No. 22 in the poll -- then immediately fell back out after losing to SMU. TCU was on the radar, however, and by going undefeated the rest of the way it rose to No. 14 in the final BCS standings, which, due to ACC champion Florida State's No. 22 ranking, would have garnered a berth under the new rules.