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Bowl Projections

An early look at title game, the BCS and beyond

Posted: Monday November 6, 2006 1:08PM; Updated: Monday November 6, 2006 6:09PM
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Brian Brohm and No. 3 Louisville put themselves in postion to play in the national-title game by knocking off West Virginia last Thursday.
Brian Brohm and No. 3 Louisville put themselves in postion to play in the national-title game by knocking off West Virginia last Thursday.
Bob Rosato/SI
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These are my first bowl projections of the season. They will be updated every Monday between now and the end of the season.

There are a few things you need to know to properly understand these projections. Unfortunately, I have a feeling 90 percent of you have already skipped past this part straight to the projections and will now be sending me angry e-mails that could have been averted by simply reading the following explanation. But I feel like I ought to try anyway:

• These projections primarily illustrate where teams would likely head if the season ended TODAY. With the exception of projected conference champions, very few attempts were made to predict future results, because trying to predict the remaining schedules of 64 teams would take several weeks.

• With the exception of conference champions, bowls are not obligated to select teams in order of conference standing. The designation "Pac-10 No. 3," for instance, does not refer to the third-place Pac-10 team but to a bowl having third choice of eligible Pac-10 teams.

• Notre Dame is part of the Big East's bowl partnerships. During of two of the next four seasons, the Gator Bowl can choose a Big 12 team rather than a Big East team. Whichever conference it doesn't choose then goes to the Sun Bowl. Also, the Meineke Car Care Bowl has a deal for this year only that replaces its Big East choice with Navy.

• If a conference does not have enough eligible teams to fill all of its partnerships, the partner bowl(s) can choose any eligible team remaining after the other bowls fill their obligations. This year, the Big Ten is unlikely to have enough teams to fill its spots in the Motor City Bowl and, possibly, the Insight Bowl.

• Finally, to be eligible for a BCS at-large berth, a team must have nine wins and finish in the top 14 of the BCS standings. Teams that finish in the top four are guaranteed a berth. One non-BCS conference champion (i.e. Boise State) can earn a guaranteed berth by finishing in the top 12 or by finishing in the top 16 if ranked higher than one of the six major-conference champs. Notre Dame is guaranteed a berth if it finishes in the top eight.

BCS/NEW YEARS DAY GAMES
Date Game
Jan. 8 Title: Ohio State (BCS No. 1) vs. Louisville (BCS No. 2)
Jan. 3 Sugar: Florida (SEC champ) vs. Notre Dame (BCS at-large)
Jan. 2 Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC champ) vs. Auburn (BCS at-large)
Jan. 1 Fiesta: Texas (Big 12 champ) vs. Boise State (BCS at-large)
Jan. 1 Rose: Cal (Pac-10 champ) vs. Michigan (BCS at-large)
Jan. 1 Capital One: Wisconsin (Big Ten No. 2) vs. Tennessee (SEC No. 2)
Jan. 1 Gator: Wake Forest (ACC No. 3) vs. West Virginia (Big East No. 2/Big 12)
Jan. 1 Outback: Penn State (Big Ten No. 3) vs. LSU (SEC)
Jan. 1 Cotton: Oklahoma (Big 12 No. 2) vs. Arkansas (SEC)
OTHER GAMES
Date Game
Jan. 7 GMAC: East Carolina (C-USA No. 2) vs. Ohio (MAC)
Jan. 6 International: Pittsburgh (Big East No. 4/5) vs. Western Michigan (MAC)
Dec. 31 MPC Computers: San Jose State (WAC) vs. Miami (ACC)
Dec. 30 Chick-fil-A: Virginia Tech (ACC No. 2) vs. Alabama (SEC)
Dec. 30 Alamo: Purdue (Big Ten No. 4/5) vs. Nebraska (Big 12 No. 4)
Dec. 30 Meineke: Navy (Big East/Navy) vs. Clemson (ACC)
Dec. 29 Champs Sports: Maryland (ACC No. 4) vs. Iowa (Big Ten No. 4/5)
Dec. 29 Insight: Utah* (Big Ten No. 6) vs. Texas Tech (Big 12 No. 6)
Dec. 29 Liberty: Houston (C-USA champ) vs. South Carolina (SEC)
Dec. 29 Sun: Oregon (Pac-10 No. 3) vs. Missouri (Big 12/Big East)
Dec. 29 Music City: Boston College (ACC No. 5) vs. Kentucky (SEC)
Dec. 28 Texas: Oklahoma State (Big 12) vs. Rutgers (Big East)
Dec. 28 Holiday: USC (Pac-10 No. 2) vs. Texas A&M (Big 12 No. 3)
Dec. 28 Independence: Kansas State (Big 12 No. 7) vs. Georgia (SEC)
Dec. 27 Emerald: Washington State (Pac-10 No. 5) vs. Florida State (ACC No. 7)
Dec. 26 Motor City: Cincinnati* (Big Ten No. 7) vs. Central Michigan (MAC)
Dec. 24 Hawaii: Hawaii (WAC) vs. Arizona State (Pac-10 No. 6)
Dec. 23 Armed Forces: TCU (MWC) vs. Tulsa (C-USA)
Dec. 23 New Mexico: New Mexico (MWC) vs. Nevada (WAC)
Dec. 23 Birmingham: USF (Big East) vs. Southern Miss (C-USA)
Dec. 22 New Orleans: Middle Tennessee St. (Sun Belt) vs. UTEP (C-USA)
Dec. 21 Las Vegas: Oregon State (Pac-10 No. 4) vs. BYU (MWC champ)
Dec. 20 Poinsettia: Air Force (MWC) vs. Kansas (at-large)
Teams in bold have accepted bowl invitation
* -- replacement team for conference without enough eligible teams

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