Behind its dominant front four, Michigan will beat OSU

	Alan Branch and the Wolverines' defense have held opponents to 231.5 yards a game, third in the nation. John Biever/SI
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• To read SI.com's Luke Winn's analysis of why the Buckeyes will prevail in this epic battle go here.

There is no greater force in college football than an overpowering front four. It's how LSU (led by Marcus Spears and Marquise Hill) won a national title in 2003 in spite of a modest offense. It's why USC (with Shaun Cody and Mike Patterson) won crowns in '03 and '04 but couldn't pull it off in '05, despite having two Heisman winners on offense. And it's the single biggest reason Michigan is going to take down Ohio State on Saturday.

In LaMarr Woodley, Alan Branch, Terrance Taylor and Rondell Biggs/Tim Jamison, the 2006 Wolverines boast college football's most dominant defensive line since those USC and LSU teams. They've enabled Michigan to notch a national best 40 sacks and have held opponents to 29.9 rushing yards per game, best in the nation. No opponent all season has managed to get into any kind of offensive rhythm against the Wolverines' first-string defense, because nearly as soon as the ball is snapped, there are already two or three Michigan defenders in the backfield. As one Big Ten offensive coordinator told me, "They rush the quarterback, and they stop the run on the way."

Troy Smith is a tremendously talented passer, but if you watch tape of Ohio State, you'll invariably see him standing calmly in the pocket, going through his progressions and finding the open receiver. With wideouts like Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez, someone's bound to be open -- but not if Smith doesn't have time to find them. One matchup in particular the Wolverines have a chance to exploit is Lombardi finalist Woodley (11 sacks) against OSU left tackle Alex Boone, who is coming off a knee injury that sidelined him the past two weeks.

The Buckeyes have only faced two defensive fronts remotely close to Michigan's. The first, Texas, didn't come after Smith because coaches later admitted they were afraid he would run, a strange decision considering Smith has been staying in the pocket whenever possible since about halfway through last season.

The other was Penn State. If I had to guess, Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English has been watching a lot of tape of that Sept. 23 game. Going into the fourth quarter, Penn State trailed 7-3, had picked off Smith twice and had held him to 75 yards. On a second-and-eight from the Nittany Lions 37, Penn State defensive end Tim Shaw chased Smith about 15 yards backward, where he suddenly reversed direction, planted his feet and threw a perfect post pass to Brian Robiskie in the end zone. It broke open the game, and the Nittany Lions' offense was helpless to come back.

If Smith pulls off a couple plays like that, Michigan doesn't have a chance. No team would. But the Wolverines' defensive dominance doesn't end with its linemen. Linebacker David Harris will help ensure Smith doesn't break containment. And cornerback Leon Hall and the secondary have shown no vulnerability whatsoever to big plays. Smith will lead the Buckeyes on some scoring drives; however, facing the heaviest pressure he's seen since last year's Penn State game (not coincidentally, the last time the Buckeyes lost), he won't be able to stretch the field like usually does.

Meanwhile, Lloyd Carr's penchant for conservative play calling in big games may actually work to his benefit in this one. The strength of Ohio State's defense is producing turnovers. Where teams have run into trouble against the Buckeyes is when they try to throw downfield -- OSU leads the nation with 21 interceptions. Carr will therefore hand the ball to Mike Hart (he of the 665 straight touches without a fumble before coughing one up against Ball State) 35, 40 times if necessary, and then, on a few occasions when the opportunity presents itself, have Chad Henne go over the top to Mario Manningham, Steve Breaston or Adrian Arrington on play-action.

Ohio State has been grabbing the headlines all season, but Michigan has very quietly had just as impressive a year. No, the Wolverines don't have a flashy offense that scores 55 points, but with a defense as dominant as theirs, they don't need one. Michigan wins, 17-14.