In springboard Rose Bowl, USC will edge out Michigan

USC and Michigan both saw their national championship hopes go up in smoke the final weekend of the regular season -- the Trojans by losing to UCLA, the Wolverines by not playing. There are worse consolation prizes, however, than returning to the Rose Bowl, the most revered and, more often than not, most watched of the non-championship bowl games.

The two schools have made a combined 49 Rose Bowl appearances, including three years ago, when Matt Leinart led USC to a 28-14 victory over Braylon Edwards and Michigan. And while the 2006 championship may be out of reach, a win in this game could serve as a springboard to a potential run in '07. Much like Ohio State following last year's Fiesta Bowl, the winner here will be a good bet to start next season No. 1 in the polls.

Bowl Breakdown: Rose No. 3 Michigan (11-1) vs. No. 8 USC (10-2) Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET (ABC) Rose Bowl (92,542) Pasadena, Calif.

Three Things You Should Care About

1) USC's offensive line -- what happened? Trojans left tackle Sam Baker is a two-time All-America, but the last time we saw him, Baker, along with the rest of USC's blockers, was getting run over by Bruce Davis, Justin Hickman and the rest of the UCLA defensive front. Frazzled by the Bruins' speed, the Trojans' linemen committed four false-start penalties. Quarterback John David Booty spent much of the game running for his life, while USC as a team ran for just 55 yards en route to the school's lowest scoring output (nine points) in nearly five years.

"The pressure was coming from left and right. It was crazy,'' receiver Dwayne Jarrett said afterward. "That's something we've got to work on as a team.''

All of this is particularly alarming for USC because its next opponent, Michigan, possesses a more dominant defensive front, led by All-America linemen LaMarr Woodley and Alan Branch. The Wolverines led the nation in rushing defense (43 yards per game) this season while collecting 41 sacks. If Branch can blow up the middle of USC's line like he's done to so many opponents, it will likely render the Trojans one-dimensional, because USC's young running backs haven't shown the capacity to get outside like Reggie Bush once did.

2) Mario Manningham may be the most dangerous receiver on the field. USC fans will most likely scoff at that notion what with their pair of All-Americas, Jarrett and Steve Smith, but Michigan's sophomore is arguably the best deep threat in the country -- when he's healthy.

In his first six games, before a knee injury sidelined him for the next three-plus weeks, Manningham averaged 22 yards per catch and caught nine touchdowns -- most of them long, one-on-one catches in which he left the nearest defender in the dust. Against Notre Dame, Manningham's three touchdowns went for 69, 22 and 20 yards; against Wisconsin, 38 and 24; against Michigan State 41 and 27. "He has tremendous speed," said quarterback Chad Henne, "and when he cuts, he creates separation from that corner or safety that's on him."

The correlation between Manningham's presence and Michigan's offensive production this season was pretty remarkable. During those first six games, the Wolverines averaged 33.5 points; during the three he missed, 18.0. Then, with Manningham back at full strength the final two games against Indiana and Ohio State, Michigan put up 34 and 39 points (with Manningham catching six passes for 86 yards against the Buckeyes). It's not just his production that's so important to the Wolverines, but his mere presence opens up opportunities for fellow receivers Steve Breaston and Adrian Arrington. "When he's out there," said running back Mike Hart, "the defense has to worry about him."