This combination of circumstances -- its location in a relative media backwater (if there is such a thing in 2006, when all the world is wirelessly linked), its earnest connection to the past and not to the future, and the competition from more tradition locales (Keeneland's Blue Grass Stakes this weekend, Aqueduct's Wood Memorial and Santa Anita's Santa Anita Derby last weekend) -- would seem to preclude the Arkansas Derby from rising to prominence among Kentucky Derby prep races.

It has not. Two years ago trainer John Servis took his entire stable from Philadelphia Park to Oaklawn for the winter. He loved the relative calm. Pundits were slow to accept Smarty's performance as genuine. I remember watching the Arkansas Derby at Keeneland after Nick Zito's The Cliff's Edge won the Blue Grass. Everybody in the room was impressed, but nobody knew for certain what to make of Smarty. Nobody knew until Derby week, when rival trainers started raving about Servis' horse.

Last year we were wiser. Afleet Alex's victory in the Arkansas Derby was every bit as impressive as Smarty's. But then handicappers looked back at the Rebel, where Alex finished last. It turns out he was sick in that one.

I doubt if anybody will be slow to embrace Lawyer Ron as genuine if he rolls in Saturday's Arkansas Derby. His credentials are already impressive: five consecutive victories by more than 30 lengths, including wins from on the lead and off the pace (although, in fairness, he has usually been on the lead). If the barrister wins big on Saturday, he will join Brother Derek and Barbaro as Derby favorites.

Why the path through Arkansas?

Two years ago Cella tricked up the deal with his $5 million bonus. That bonus is no longer offered, but it was a one-shot stroke of marketing brilliance, and Cella was given an Eclipse Award for it. Both Servis and Afleet Alex's trainer, Tim Ritchey, flat-out liked Oaklawn Park.

On a larger scale, the $1 million Arkansas Derby is one of only three Derby preps with a seven-figure purse. The others have flaws. The United Arab Emirates Derby pays $2 million, but it's in Dubai, which is an unrealistic ship for any horse, even those based in Dubai, because they have to then get to Louisville. The Florida Derby pays $1 million, but it's five weeks out from the Kentucky Derby and no horse has won the Kentucky Derby with a layoff of more than four weeks since Needles in 1956. Florida Derby winner Barbaro is trying this year.

The Blue Grass? In recent years the Blue Grass, while geographically attractive, has proven to be a poor indicator of Kentucky Derby success. The last horse to run the Blue Grass and win the Kentucky Derby was Thunder Gulch in 1995, and he was off the board in the Blue Grass. The last Blue Grass winner to win the Kentucky Derby was Zito's Strike the Gold in 1991, a full 15 years ago. Front-runners are almost unbeatable at Keeneland, a form that seldom holds down the highway at Churchill.

A year ago, horses coming out of the Santa Anita Derby were denigrated before the Kentucky Derby. Then they took four of the top six places on the first Saturday in May. Giacomo was the first winner out of the Santa Anita Derby since Charismatic in '99. But Charismatic was the third consecutive Derby winner out of California. It all goes in cycles.

On Wednesday morning I sat with Lawyer Bob's 71-year-old trainer, Bob Holthus, at his customary position on the second-floor Oaklawn grandstand. He was talking about Brother Derek.

"He ran against four horses with no pressure,'' said Holthus. "I'm not sure his trainer got the race he needed.''

Lawyer Ron is the 7-5 favorite in the Arkansas Derby. He will race against 14 horses, including several with enough speed to make him run and others who should close at the finish. He will probably get the race he needs. Beyond that, it's guesswork.

History can mislead like statistics can lie. All we know for today is that very recent history dictates that if you want to run well in the Kentucky Derby, Oaklawn Park is a good place to be three weekends beforehand.