The last time the Red Sox made such a heavy investment in a pitcher, his name was Pedro Martinez. Greg Fiume/Getty Images
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The risk is that the heavy workload on Matsuzaka as a young pitcher -- and the Red Sox know the statistical studies about how piling on the innings and pitches for guys in their early 20s raises the breakdown rate -- will catch up to him. And Boston knows another risk is that agent Scott Boras is likely to ask for a three-year contract that allows Matsuzaka to be an unrestricted free agent at its conclusion. Boras, now stuck with one team and 30 days to strike a deal, knows Matsuzaka will be much more valuable on the open market at age 29.

"You went into this knowing it's probably a three-year deal," said one executive of a team in the bidding for Matsuzaka. "That's something you had to build in as a given."

So take the reported $45 million posting fee and conservatively assume another $30 million for three years (the Sox gave Beckett, a less durable and accomplished pitcher, a three-year, $30 million extension with a fourth-year option this year) and the Sox may be sinking $75 million into three years for a pitcher. Is it crazy or is it genius? Is it worse than giving Carl Pavano $40 million for four years, as the Yankees did? Worse than giving Gil Meche, Ted Lilly, Vicente Padilla and the rest of this year's picked over starters the latest Pavano-styled contracts? Worse than giving J.D. Drew $48 million for four years?

"Free-agent pitching is the most expensive and most volatile commodity we deal with," Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro said. "Most of us would rather deal with a set of knowns. You're much more comfortable with what you have on hand than wading into the waters of free agency.

"Just look at last year and pull up the contracts. How good did Matt Morris work out? Paul Byrd? [Morris went 10-15 with a 4.98 ERA after getting a three-year deal for $27 million; Byrd went 10-9 with a 4.88 ERA after signing for $14.25 million over two seasons.] There are very few values ever on free-agent pitching. Most general managers, some looking at objective data and some on a gut level, recognize that and don't rely on finding value in that market."

Matsuzaka stands out on every level as an exception, especially in the categories of age and ability. The Red Sox operate in a very thorough manner. They didn't pull their (tax-free) bid number out of a hat. They made an exceptional play for an exceptional pitcher, kicking in roughly $10 million extra on the posting bid -- one non-season of Pavano in Yankee money -- to make sure they got the player.

The stakes are higher, but it's reminiscent of the past Boston regime stepping up for Pedro Martinez with a $75 million, six-year commitment when he was 26. Now all Matsuzaka has to do is pitch like Pedro to make it worthwhile.