
Top prospects: Honorable mentions (cont.)Posted: Wednesday January 17, 2007 1:48PM; Updated: Monday January 22, 2007 12:30PM By Bryan Smith, Special to SI.com
Josh Fields, 3B/OF, White Sox In the last three major-league seasons, just four hitters have had a BABIP higher than .375. For those not named Suzuki, Jeter or Cabrera, consistently posting a BABIP over .350 is difficult. What worries me about Fields are his poor contact skills, which were overshadowed last season by a .394 BABIP. Fields' power and athleticism make him a good prospect, but a high BABIP overrated his 2006 breakout campaign. Carlos Gomez, OF, Mets Curiously, after Gomez' distinctly mediocre season in Low-A as an 18-year-old, the Mets had him skip High-A for his final teenage year. In AA, he had a tale of two seasons: pre- and post-injury. Before landing on the Disabled List in late May, Gomez hit .211/.291/.311 with a .256 BABIP, stealing 16 bases in 19 attempts. After healing, Gomez began hitting the ball with more authority, posting a .491 slugging average in the season's final four months. He was also much luckier, with a .399 BABIP, and his patience waned to a dramatic halt. Gomez' potential lies somewhere in the middle, with 40-50 annual steals to boot. J.A. Happ, SP, Phillies Even if the Phillies trade Jon Lieber, Happ's presence in the Philly system would leave the organization in the running for the majors' best sixth starter. Happ's ceiling might be as low as any in the top 100, but his pitching and durability make him a sure bet as a future contributor. Look for Happ, a lefty, to be ready and waiting at the first hint of injury from Cole Hamels or Adam Eaton. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Devil Rays Tampa's conservative approach to teenage pitching prospects was again on display in 2006, as the team kept 2005 third-round pick Hellickson on a very slow pace. As a result, the short right-hander was one of the New York-Penn League's best pitchers. Tampa also delayed worrying about the wear on his right arm another season. Next year Hellickson should dominate the Midwest League like Jake McGee and Davis did in 2006. Will Inman, SP, Brewers Inman is my No. 76 prospect. The right-hander was A-ball's most dominant starter, thanks to an aggressive and controlled approach to hitters. Inman pitches around 90 mph but succeeded by throwing the ball on the inner half as consistently as any other pitcher in A-ball. We should learn in 2007 if Inman's breaking ball is a good enough pitch to provide success at the highest levels. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Brewers While Tim Lincecum struggled all spring with complaints about his size, despite his velocity, Jeffress quietly became the third prep pitcher drafted. Like Lincecum, Jeffress touches the mid-to-upper 90s with ease, and does so with a delivery less likely to evoke winces. A center fielder in high school, Jeffress is very athletic, but quick legs could not help ugly control numbers during his Arizona Summer League stint. Jeffress' 2.56 G/F ratio suggests his fastball is as heavy as it is fast, so injury notwithstanding, the Brewers would be misguided to not make at least an ace reliever out of their first rounder. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, Rockies The last of many Rockies prospects on my list is Jimenez, a power right-handed pitcher who logged a superbly impressive minor league season. Jimenez was durable, dominating and consistent, yet question marks still fill his resume. The two most prominent questions are whether he can improve his command and whether he will add a third-pitch to his arsenal. Those questions look doubtful at this point, so the projections still have him in a relief role. George Kottaras, C, Red Sox A talented left-handed hitter with a patient eye, Kottaras had an .845 OPS at Double-A Mobile (a horrible park for hitters) upon promotion last July. However, one must wonder what might have happened had the Padres not prematurely rushed Kottaras, who struggled in Triple-A. His final 100 at-bats in AA (.218 AVG) were decidedly worse than his first 150 (.314 AVG). The Red Sox will handle Kottaras with patience as the catcher diligently works at improving his catch-and-throw skills. Brad Lincoln, SP, Pirates Lincoln's first-round status was earned through a fantastic 2005 showing in the Cape, and his outstanding junior season at the University of Houston elevated him to a top-five pick. Contributing on the mound as well as with the bat, Lincoln was the nation's most valuable player last season, and the Pirates continued to show a desire for athletic hurlers. A bulldog with stuff and control, Lincoln should rise to the majors quickly. Chris Marrero, OF, Nationals Washington's only representative on my prospect list, Marrero is the best of the four prep players that led off the team's 2006 draft. Marrero's power is likely years away from being realized as he adds weight to his frame. Expect a lot of strikeouts and a lot of doubles in his first professional season. Miguel Montero, C, Diamondbacks Promoted to the Pacific Coast League just a week after Kottaras, Montero did not dominate the Southern League offensively like the former Padre. However, Arizona timed Montero's promotion better, and his contact-first approach led to big AAA numbers. Montero should be an average Major League catcher offensively, but he also threw out 37.5 percent of baserunners in 2006. The D-Backs have shown little reservations in opening the season with Montero in their lineup, and for good reason. Brandon Morrow, RHP, Mariners Our final 2005 Cape Cod League standout, Morrow also kept his stock rising his junior season, becoming one of the Pac-10's most effective starters. Seattle opted for Morrow over local choice Lincecum or the expensive Andrew Miller, believing Morrow's power stuff will wreak havoc in the minor leagues. In my eyes, Morrow's only plus pitchers are a mid-to-high 90s fastball and a deadly splitter, an arsenal that could make him an ace reliever. Micah Owings, SP, Diamondbacks Due to rather pedestrian stuff, Owings hardly has the potential of other members of this list. However, thanks to control and athleticism, he flew up a system with little pitching talent to have one of the most productive seasons in the minors last year. A two-way player at Tulane, Owings has command of all his pitches, is aggressive on the bump. An additional plus is that he hit .356 in 59 at-bats in his first pro season. Chris Parmelee, OF, Twins Mike Radcliffe is the game's best scouting director, so it came as little surprise to see Parmelee storm out of the box with a .500 slugging percentage in his debut. The slugger managed this despite a late season power outage when his season extended seven months, the longest of his career. Parmelee fell apart late in the season, going 12-for-46 with four extra-base hits at season's end. Before that, he posted an isolated power of .277 in the Gulf Coast League. He should become the Twins' third 30-HR hitter since Kent Hrbek in no time. Nolan Reimold, OF, Orioles The Orioles looked in great position to project a plus-plus outfield future at the end of May 2006, with Nick Markakis already in the majors and Reimold dominating High-A. After displaying patience, power and speed the first three months, Reimold hit a speed bump after the Carolina League All-Star game in June. After the break, Reimold hit .216 with 20 extra-base hits in 253 at-bats. Oswaldo Sosa, SP, Twins No organization has pitching depth in the low minors like the Twins, and Sosa is the best of a group that contains Anthony Swarzak, Eduardo Morlan, Alexander Smit and others. The diminutive right-hander is among the best sinker/slider pitchers in the minors, an innings eater greatly skilled at keeping the ball low in the zone. Look for him to earn a spot in the big league rotation by 2008. Ryan Tucker, RHP, Marlins While Chris Volstad and Aaron Thompson boast better pedigrees and 2006 numbers than Tucker, the latter emerged as the best prospect of the trio in the South Atlantic League. Tucker was a one-pitch thrower in the Sally League's first half, posting a 6.67 ERA with a horrible walk rate. Once he made headway with command and tightened his slider in the second half, Tucker became Greensboro's best starter. Look for his success to carry over, and for the short right-hander to reach Double-A in 2007. Bryan Smith, co-founder of Baseball Analysts, is a freelance writer with work appearing at the Hardball Times, BaseballProspectus.com and Baseball America. Feel free to e-mail Bryan here. 2 of 2 | ||||||||||||||||||