Players who fell out of last year's top 50 MVPs

	Baseball Prospectus' Top 50 Players Rankings: 50-41 | 40-31 | 30-21 | 20-11 | 10-1 Honorable Mentions | Dropouts Click for more on PECOTA.
	Looking Back: The 2006 Top 50 MVPs 50. Daisuke Matsuzaka, P, Seibu Lions 49. Justin Verlander, P, Detroit Tigers 48. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers 47. Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida Marlins 46. Chris Young, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks 45. Bobby Crosby, SS, Oakland A's 44. Ben Sheets, P, Milwaukee Brewers 43. Vernon Wells, OF, Toronto Blue Jays 42. Dontrelle Willis, P, Florida Marlins 41. Brandon Webb, P, Arizona Diamondbacks 40. Brian McCann, C, Atlanta Braves 39. Chris Carpenter, P, St. Louis Cardinals 38. Lance Berkman, 1B-OF, Houston Astros 37. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals 36. Marcus Giles, 2B, Atlanta Braves 35. Pedro Martinez, P, New York Mets 34. Victor Martinez, C, Cleveland Indians 33. Travis Hafner, DH, Cleveland Indians 32. Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies 31. Brandon Wood, SS, Los Angeles Angels 30. Carlos Beltran, OF, New York Mets 29. Jake Peavy, P, San Diego Padres 28. Michael Young, SS, Texas Rangers 27. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Los Angeles Angels 26. Roy Halladay, P, Toronto Blue Jays 25. B.J. Upton, SS, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 24. Justin Upton, OF-SS, Arizona Diamondbacks 23. Roy Oswalt, P, Houston Astros 22. David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox 21. Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees 20. Andruw Jones, OF, Atlanta Braves 19. Adam Dunn, 1B-OF, Cincinnati Reds 18. Eric Chavez, 3B, Oakland A's 17. Rich Harden, P, Oakland A's 16. Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 15. Jhonny Peralta, SS, Cleveland Indians 14. Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians 13. Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs 12. Miguel Tejada, SS, Baltimore Orioles 11. Carlos Zambrano, P, Chicago Cubs 10. Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Los Angeles Angels 9. Jason Bay, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates 8. Felix Hernandez, P, Seattle Mariners 7. Mark Teixeira, 1B, Texas Rangers 6. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins 5. Johan Santana, P, Minnesota Twins 4. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Florida Marlins 3. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees 2. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets 1. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals

By Nate Silver, BaseballProspectus.com

Eric Chavez, 3B, Athletics, Age 29 (No. 18 last year)
Chavez is off to one of his customary slow starts, but even if he recovers, the upside is no longer what it once was.

Bobby Crosby, SS, Athletics, Age 27 (45)
A speculative pick to begin with, Crosby's injuries have taken a toll, both on his bat and on his defense. He's no better than a league average player at his point.

Adam Dunn, LF, Reds, Age 27 (19)
Any player who carries the torch of Rob Deer is going to be a personal favorite of mine. But Deer played a good defensive outfield, whereas Dunn is a butcher out there, and that makes the low batting averages and poor baserunning harder to tolerate. Dunn also has a history of seeing his production wear off as the season wears on. Over the course of his career his OPS is 1.030 in April but .865 for the rest of the season, the largest such gap for any active player with at least 3,000 plate appearances. That pattern dovetails all too well with the questions about his conditioning.

Marcus Giles, 2B, Padres, Age 29 (36)
There's some historical evidence -- think Chuck Knoblauch -- that second basemen peak early. Giles seems to be a good example of that, now four years removed from his 21-homer season at age 25 in Atlanta. He has shown some signs of resurgence in San Diego this year and has certainly made Braves GM John Scheurholz look silly for non-tendering him, but the debate is whether he belongs in the Top 100, not the Top 50.

Jeremy Hermida, RF, Marlins, Age 23 (47)
While the rest of the world was making Grady Sizemore comparisons, PECOTA was skeptical about what sort of player Hermida might become, wondering whether the 111 walks he took at Double-A in 2005 was a reflection of a great plate approach or a propensity to take advantage of wild, minor league arms. One disappointing rookie season later, he hasn't had the chance to become much of anything, held out of action because of a bruised knee.

Pedro Martinez, P, Mets, Age 35 (35)
At his peak, Pedro was not only the best pitcher in his league, but arguably the most effective pitcher in major league history. He's no longer anywhere near the Top 50, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's the Mets' ace come October.

Jhonny Peralta, SS, Indians, Age 25 (15)
This is a make-or-break season for Peralta, and the results so far are inconclusive; he hit just .241 through May 1 but did have five home runs. Until we have more evidence one way or the other, the Occam's razor conclusion is that 2005 was a career year.

Ben Sheets, P, Brewers, Age 28 (44)
A favorite of projection systems because of his traditionally excellent strikeout-to-walk ratios, Sheets' K numbers are way down this year, with just 21 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings. When coupled with his injury history and whispers about his work ethic, that leads to questions about whether he's pitching at 100 percent.

Chris Carpenter, P, Cardinals, Age 32 (39)
This is a shame; he's pretty clearly been the best pitcher in his league when healthy. But given his age and his history of Tommy John surgery, odds are that his best days are behind him even once he takes the mound again.

Brandon Wood, 3B-SS, Angels, Age 22 (31)
Wood's upside has been compared to Cal Ripken. But if he doesn't find a way to reverse his tendency to strike out -- he whiffed in nearly 30 percent of his plate appearances at Arkansas last year -- his downside could look like Mike Pagliarulo. His shift from shortstop to third base is not necessarily an indictment of his defense -- the Angels are stuck with the big contract they gave to Orlando Cabrera -- but nevertheless tempers our expectations further.

Michael Young, SS, Rangers, Age 30 (28)
Young didn't hit for much power as a prospect and he isn't hitting for much power now. The general rule of thumb for a player who peaks a bit late is that his decline tends to come a bit early, and that seems to be the case here.