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| Baseball Prospectus' Top 50 Players |
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| Cole Hamels' devastating change-up makes him an unusually gifted prospect. Richard Schultz/WireImage.com |
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By Nate Silver, BaseballProspectus.com
In concept, the Ultimate Fantasy Draft is pretty simple: If you were starting a team from scratch, which players would you build around? Here's Nos. 21-30. (Last year's rankings in parenthesis.)
No. 30. Jeremy Bonderman, P, Tigers, Age 24 (NR)
Bonderman has already overcome an awful lot. Forced into a major league rotation at age 20 after never having pitched above A ball, he suffered through a 119-loss season with the 2003 Tigers, taking 19 of those losses himself. He's also dyslexic, something which is forgotten by media members who occasionally refer to him as being a little "slow." But all that hard work is starting to pay dividends. Few 24-year-old pitchers have this much major league experience, and Bonderman has responded by lowering his ERA in each season of his major league career. His strikeout-to-walk ratios are now among the best in baseball. And he has proven to be extremely durable, in part because the Tigers were smart enough to limit his pitch counts, even if they called him to the big leagues a bit early. Expect him to leverage his strong April into a breakout season, and become Detroit's answer to Jake Peavy.
No. 29. Cole Hamels, P, Phillies, Age 23 (NR)
For most pitchers the changeup is a throwaway pitch, used to keep the hitter off-balance. For Hamels, it's his bread-and-butter. Opponents hit just .155 against his change last season, which is remarkable considering that he throws the pitch nearly 30 percent of the time. One of his top PECOTA comparables is another famous Phillies left-hander: 329-game-winner Steve Carlton.
No. 28. Carlos Zambrano, P, Cubs, Age 26 (11)
PECOTA forecasted Zambrano's ERA to rise to 3.85 this year, something which seemed silly before the year began but is now looking pretty smart. Still, he deserves the benefit of the doubt. Pitchers who throw as hard as Zambrano and do as good a job of keeping the ball down are rare -- the last really good one was Kevin Brown -- and fact that Zambrano survived Dusty Baker's meat grinder has to be viewed as a positive.
No. 27. Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees, Age 24 (NR)
Here is a rare species: the underrated Yankee. Cano hit .341 last year. Since World War II only eight other second basemen have hit .340 or better in a season in which they had at least 500 plate appearances, and only Rod Carew did so when he was as young as Cano. Although Cano could stand to draw a few more walks, if the upside is Carew and the downside is Carlos Baerga, Cano is going to wind up being a pretty darn good ballplayer.
No. 26. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels, Age 23 (27)
Kendrick and Cano have similar approaches but Kendrick is a year younger and considerably faster -- important for a player who puts the ball in play so often. He makes up for his brief major league track record with his .361 lifetime batting average in the minor leagues (better than even Tony Gwynn's .347). The hand injury that is keeping him out of action shouldn't be more than a minor annoyance; position player injuries do not recur with nearly the same frequency that pitcher injuries do.
No. 25. Roy Halladay, P, Blue Jays, Age 30 (26)
In some ways Halladay is similar to namesake Roy Oswalt. They're about the same age and have great command but a strikeout rate that isn't a whole lot better than the league average. But Halladay does one important thing to distinguish himself: leveraging the natural sink that his big frame gives him into lots of groundball outs. That means fewer home runs and more double plays, and Halladay can trust his defense while taming his pitch counts in the process. There's been no deterioration in his stuff, and Halladay can reach back and get a strikeout when he needs one, but he's smart enough to know that he has eight guys on the field behind him.
No. 24. Miguel Tejada, SS, Orioles, Age 31 (12)
Tejada is a terrific player, and the sort of guy who could get the shaft from the BBWAA when his Hall of Fame candidacy comes due in 10 or 12 years. Obscured by the Holy Trinity early in his career and tarred by Rafael Palmeiro's steroids brush more recently, Tejada has more lifetime home runs than David Ortiz and more lifetime RBIs than Paul Konerko. While most players trade batting average for power as they age, Tejada has gone in the other direction, swinging at more pitches early in the at-bat to cut down on his strikeouts and take advantage of his line drive stroke. As with Andruw Jones, the hallmark of a great player is that he's able to make those sorts of adjustments.
No. 23. Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals, Age 23 (NR)
One thing that statheads haven't done a very good job of studying is just what sort of learning curve a rookie faces during his first 100 major league at-bats. The consensus No. 1 prospect entering the season, Gordon appeared to be forcing the issue early in the season, striking out 16 times while walking none in his first 12 major league games. Since then his plate approach has improved considerably, with 13 walks against 16 strikeouts, and the power should follow soon. Gordon is clearly a confident guy -- maybe overconfident -- and perhaps being inserted in the fifth slot in the Opening Day lineup led him to try and be the next George Brett a bit sooner than he was ready. His move down in the batting order may have saved him from a trip down to Omaha.
No. 22. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies, Age 28 (NR)
Leaving him out of the Top 50 was the biggest mistake I made in compiling last year's list, more so than even Jose Reyes, because Utley had done more at the major league level. There is some room for debate about his defense -- our system hasn't loved it, while others rate it as among the best in the league -- but there's no longer any arguing about his bat, which is the best power stick at second base since Ryne Sandberg.
No. 21. Travis Hafner, DH, Indians, Age 30 (33)
Figuring out where to rank Pronk and Big Papi was just about the toughest decision that I faced this year. They're on the wrong side of 30, and neither has a defensive position; those things are big problems as far as team-building goes. At the end of the day, however, there are only a handful of bats in each generation that are as special as those of Hafner and Ortiz. If the goal is to win a championship, few players give you a bigger head start.
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