By Kevin Goldstein, BaseballProspectus.com CLICK ABOVE FOR PICKS 1-10
| 2007 MLB Mock Draft |
| Pick |
Team |
Pos. |
Player |
College |
| 11 |
 |
LHP |
Nick Schmidt |
Arkansas |
|
The Mariners would like to add an impact bat to the mix, but have yet to identify one worthy of a pick this high who they expect to be available. They'll turn to pitching, the strength of this draft, and go with Arkansas lefty Nick Schmidt. His projection isn't equal to many of the high school arms, but he finished with year in style, nearly pitching a no-hitter in the SEC tournament and delivering seven shutout innings in regional play. He could help Seattle as early as late 2008, although it's hard to see him as a future star.
|
| 12 |
 |
OF |
Jason Heyward |
Henry County HS (Ga.) |
|
The Marlins had four first-round picks two years ago, and used every one of them to select a high school arm. Aumont and Texas high school righty Blake Beavan both have the kind of size and velocity that Florida covets, but they'll go with upside from a hitter this time around, and take Jason Heyward. The Georgia high school talent has more raw tools than anyone in the draft, with power, speed, plus arm strength, and a body that draws comparisons to Dave Winfield.
|
| 13 |
 |
RHP |
Blake Beavan |
Irving HS (Texas) |
|
The Indians have been focused on the deep class of high school arms all along, with their sights firmly locked in on Beavan. He's their top target, he'll be there, and he'll be the pick.
|
| 14 |
 |
LHP |
Josh Smoker |
Calhoun HS (Ga.) |
|
It's not secret that the Braves like to stay local, in particular taking players from the storied East Cobb youth program right in their back yard. They'd love to see Heyward drop to them, with fellow Georgia high school star Josh Smoker, a power lefty, looking like their backup plan. The team is also enamored with another high school southpaw, Madison Bumgarner from North Carolina, who generally has received high grades from scouts. He has more size and better velocity than Smoker, but indications that he wants a deal in the $2.3-2.5 million range has scared off the Braves, who almost never go above slot.
|
| 15 |
 |
RHP |
Philippe Aumont |
Ecole Du Versant HS (Quebec) |
|
The Reds have rebuilt a once-dormant farm system with some astute first round picks of late, including right-hander Homer Bailey and outfielder Jay Bruce, both high school products. They have been focusing on the impressive crop of prep third baseman all spring, and with Vitters and Dominguez out of their reach, they'll take a risk that the third-best option, Kevin Ahrens, will still be around in the supplemental round. At 15, a high-ceiling pitcher like Aumont is just too good to pass up. |
| 16 |
 |
C |
J.P. Arencibia |
Tennessee |
|
Looking for a quick and easy sign while also looking to address an organizational need, Toronto is reportedly all over college catcher J.P. Arencibia with one of their two first-round picks. Arencibia went into the spring as a possible top ten pick, but a nagging back injury kept him from playing at his best. If he can get healthy, he's a solid pick here, and the team is suddenly worried that he won't be around at 21.
|
| 17 |
 |
RHP |
Matt Harvey |
Fitch HS (Conn.) |
|
The Rangers have a pair of first-round picks, and seemingly no budget concerns with the first of the duo. They have a positive relationship with Boras, and have been on Matt Harvey all year. Harvey entered the year as the second-best high school pitcher in the draft, but his stock dropped a bit due to inconsistent performances. Texas is still trying to gage his signability, and if it's considered even halfway reasonable, they feel the power righty would be a steal this low.
|
| 18 |
 |
OF |
Julio Borbon |
Tennessee |
|
The Cardinals are a real wild card. Always tight-lipped, St. Louis has tended to go conservative and college-heavy under scouting director Jeff Luhnow, while throwing the occasional curveball with a high-ceiling talent like Colby Rasmus?who established himself as the top prospect in the system. No such position player makes sense at 18, so the guess here is that they'll return to the college route here with the only center fielder worthy of a first-round pick in Borbon, yet another Boras client.
|
| 19 |
 |
RHP/CF |
Michael Main |
DeLand HS (Fla.) |
|
The Phillies love athletes with high ceilings, and conveniently enough, there will be a couple of options for them at this stage. Tampa-area high school outfielder Michael Burgess fits the bill, but he might be too raw for even Philadelphia's taste, and there should still be some high-ceiling pitchers to choose from. In that case, Florida high school star Michael Main makes sense for Philly, as he's a supreme physical specimen, with second- to third-round talent as a center fielder, although they'll put him on the mound.
|
| 20 |
 |
LHP |
Madison Bumgarner |
South Caldwell HS (N.C.) |
|
The Dodgers also have high school arms bunched up at the top of their draft boards, and now that the top names gone, they're said to be pondering the relative merits of a trio that includes Smoker, righty Kyle Blair from Southern California, and Phoenix-area right-hander Tim Alderson. Bumgarner's price tag doesn't scare them off here, however.
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