Devil Rays set on Price; Vandy closer also in top 10

By Kevin Goldstein, BaseballProspectus.com

Four years ago, the Devil Rays had the first pick in the draft, as they do today. Their internal debates came down to the wire, as they did not finalize their decision to select California high school outfielder Delmon Young over Southern University second baseman Rickie Weeks until the morning of the draft.

There is no such drama this year, at least not at No. 1. With a clear top talent who appears relatively signable, projecting who the No. 1 pick will be is a slam dunk. After that, with various factors other than a player's talent entering the picture, we're hoisting up 40-footers from 15 feet beyond the arc, if I may mix my sports metaphors.

2007 MLB Mock Draft Pick Team Pos. Player College 1 LHP David Price Vanderbilt It's the worst-kept secret in the game. Price came into the season as the top prospect in the draft, and then went out and pitched as well, if not better than expectations. The D-Rays have insisted that Price is just part of a three-player mix that includes California prep third baseman Josh Vitters and Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters, but that's just a cover-your-ass move. It's Price, and it has always been Price. 2 3B Josh Vitters Cypress HS (Calif.) As we get closer to draft day, it's looking more and more like Kansas City will stay away from the player they prefer, New Jersey high school righty Rick Porcello, the top high school arm in the draft. While they are comfortable dealing with Porcello's agent, Scott Boras, they're not comfortable with an opening bid that could push into the $10 million range. Their attention has now turned to a three-player mix of Vitters, California prep slugger Mike Moustakas, and a cheaper option in local product Ross Detwiler, the lefty from Missouri State. Moustakas is also a Boras client but is expected to be signable in the more reasonable range of $3-3.5 million. Nonetheless, the team looks like it will opt for Vitters, the top pure hitter in the draft. 3 RHP Jarrod Parker Norwell HS (Ind.) While the Cubs would love to take Wieters, he's yet another Boras client. The Cubs have no problem with Boras, nor with his expected bonus demands, but Major League Baseball does. With the Cubs ownership situation in limbo, the Cubs have been instructed by MLB to adhere strictly to the slot system, with no well-over slot bonuses, and certainly no big league deal -- and Wieters will require both. Rumors that the Cubs would go the super-cheap option with Virginia first baseman Sean Doolittle are more than a little silly, but they've been bearing down hard on Indiana high school righty Jarrod Parker of late, with GM Jim Hendry and special assistant Gary Hughes in attendance at multiple Parker outings in May. 4 C Devin Mesoraco Punxsutawney HS (Pa.) The Pirates would like to take Wieters here but a request submitted to ownership to spend big money was quickly denied. That had the team turning to college pitching, with Detwiler their No. 1 target. Unfortunately, the Pirates have been taking college pitchers in the first round for years, with each one requiring surgery and making the Pirates feel like they are stuck in Groundhog Day. Which brings us to Devin Mesoraco. The catcher from Punxsutawney is the fastest rising player in the draft, thanks to outstanding private workouts, including one in front of Pittsburgh decision makers on Sunday in which he sprayed balls all over the field hitting with a wood bat. His combination of offensive and defensive skills rank with anyone around at this point and the local product angle makes for some much-needed good PR for a team that desperately needs it. 5 LHP Ross Detwiler Missouri State The Orioles have observed one draft mantra for years -- they won't deal with Boras. That seems to be the case once again, as Baltimore has been focusing on college pitching all year, with Detwiler and Clemson southpaw Daniel Moskos as the team's top two targets. There are some late rumors that Baltimore will find it difficult to pass up Wieters here, but it still seems like they'll go by the book in the end. Canadian high school righty Philippe Aumont has also entered the picture, but despite the confusion, the team will likely stick to the original plan when all is said and done. 6 C Matt Wieters Georgia Tech Are the Nats making a big splash, as many have rumored? Right now, the answer looks like yes. Washington has money to spend, and they've made no secret of their desire to invest heavily in their scouting and player development system. They'll have their choice of Boras' two top clients in Porcello and Wieters, but with pressure to improve the big league team as soon as possible, they'll opt for Wieters, the powerful switch-hitting catcher who could move through the minors quickly. Early indications are that Wieters will require a deal similar to the one that the Rangers gave to fellow Boras client Mark Teixeira six years ago, which means a big league deal approaching $10 million. Washington is ready to pony up. 7 SS Mike Moustakas Chatsworth HS (Calif.) Milwaukee normally shies away from Boras clients, but they've been on Moustakas all year long, being attached to him with this pick long before any other teams in this range were considering him. Late information had them targeting Mesoraco with the pick, but with him already off of the board, they'll revert to the earlier favorite, and figure out a defensive home later, provided pre-pick money discussions don't get too out of hand. If they're uncomfortable with the initial demands, they could go cheaper here with Tennessee center fielder Julio Borbon. 8 3B Matt Dominguez Chatsworth HS (Calif.) After going the safe route at No. 2 last year with Greg Reynolds, the Rockies are looking for upside this year, focusing on some of the top tools players in the high school ranks. Moustakas and Georgia prep outfielder Jason Heyward have long been at the top of their lists, but a late entry has been Moustakas' high school teammate, Matt Dominguez. Possibly the top defender in the draft, Dominguez is a player who has risen on draft boards thanks to a strong late-season surge. He began the year as a top 10 pick, slipped during the first part of the season, and now finishes where he started. 9 LHP Daniel Moskos Clemson Like the Cubs, Arizona might be operating under some limitations from Major League Baseball, who is highly perturbed with the $4 million-plus deal the D-Backs recently handed out to Max Scherzer, last year's first-round pick. Wanting to play nice, the Diamondbacks will simply take a player appropriate for the slot, focusing most on college pitching who might be able to help quickly. With Detwiler off the board, Moskos is the logical selection here. 10 RHP Casey Weathers Vanderbilt With three first-round picks, the Giants will be looking to save a little bit of money here and there, or a lot with just one. College closers are an attractive option in that scenario, as they can move quickly and pay off dividends, with Vanderbilt's Casey Weathers fitting the bill to a tee, while also adding in the extra benefit of being highly signable as a college senior.