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BP's Playoff Odds Report

Simulating every team's chances of reaching October

Posted: Monday September 24, 2007 4:15PM; Updated: Tuesday September 25, 2007 3:50PM

Every day, Baseball Prospectus takes the standings and assigns each team a ranking based on its runs scored and runs allowed for the season, smoothed out to eliminate distortions caused by ballpark effects and strong or weak schedules. Then BP simulates the season a million times and tallies up who made the playoffs and who didn't. The results of the simulated seasons are set out as a percentage, so if the Report says your team has a 25.00000% chance of winning the division, that means that your team won the division in 250,000 of our million simulations.

Here are the postseason odds through Monday's games. For more on the methodology of the Report, click here.

American League

East	W	L	Pct3	Avg W	Avg L	Champs	Wild Card	Playoffs
Red Sox	92	64	.622	96.0	66.0	80.95360	19.04640	100.00000
Yankees	90	66	.583	93.4	68.6	9.55770	90.44070	99.99840
Blue Jays	79	77	.536	82.4	79.6	.00000	.00000	.00000
Orioles	67	89	.485	69.8	92.2	.00000	.00000	.00000
Devil Rays	64	92	.466	66.4	95.6	.00000	.00000	.00000

Average wins by position in AL East: 96.0 93.4 82.4 69.8 66.4

Central	W	L	Pct3	Avg W	Avg L	Champs	Wild Card	Playoffs
Indians	92	63	.545	95.8	66.2	100.00000	.00000	100.00000
Tigers	85	72	.536	87.9	74.1	.00000	.00125	.00125
Twins	77	79	.490	79.2	82.8	.00000	.00000	.00000
White Sox	68	88	.431	71.0	91.0	.00000	.00000	.00000
Royals	67	89	.425	69.6	92.4	.00000	.00000	.00000

Average wins by position in AL Central: 95.8 87.9 79.2 71.3 69.3

West	W	L	Pct3	Avg W	Avg L	Champs	Wild Card	Playoffs
Angels	92	65	.534	94.5	67.5	100.00000	.00000	100.00000
Mariners	83	72	.478	86.6	75.4	.000000	.00035	.00035
Athletics	75	82	.513	77.3	84.7	.00000	.00000	.00000
Rangers	73	84	.460	75.3	86.7	.00000	.00000	.00000

Average wins by position in AL West: 94.5 86.6 77.3 75.2

National League

East	W	L	Pct3	Avg W	Avg L	Champs	Wild Card	Playoffs
Mets	87	69	.561	90.9	71.1	90.94177	6.96639	97.90816
Phillies	85	71	.535	88.5	73.5	9.02697	47.66327	56.69023
Braves	82	74	.539	85.1	76.9	.03127	1.21156	1.24282
Nationals	70	87	.440	71.8	90.2	.00000	.00000	.00000
Marlins	66	90	.465	68.6	93.4	.00000	.00000	.00000

Average wins by position in NL East: 90.9 88.5 85.1 71.8 68.6

Central	W	L	Pct3	Avg W	Avg L	Champions	Wild Card	Playoffs
Cubs	83	73	.514	86.0	76.0	93.59625	.00152	93.59777
Brewers	80	76	.506	83.3	78.7	6.40375	.00297	6.40672
Cardinals	73	83	.449	75.6	86.4	.00000	.00000	.00000
Reds	71	85	.472	74.3	87.7	.00000	.00000	.00000
Astros	68	88	.426	70.5	91.5	.00000	.00000	.00000
Pirates	66	90	.414	68.9	93.1	.00000	.00000	.00000

Average wins by position in NL Central: 86.1 83.3 75.8 74.1 70.6 68.8

West	W	L	Pct3	Avg W	Avg L	Champions	Wild Card	Playoffs
Diamondbacks	88	68	.485	90.8	71.2	91.75357	4.88523	96.63879
Padres	85	71	.517	87.9	74.1	4.56907	27.10483	31.67389
Rockies	84	72	.547	87.2	74.8	3.67737	12.16189	15.83925
Dodgers	80	76	.543	83.4	78.6	.00000	.00235	.00235
Giants	70	87	.483	72.2	89.8	.00000	.00000	.00000

Average wins by position in NL West: 90.9 88.6 86.9 83.4 71.7

For injury reports, commentary and cutting-edge performance analysis, visit Baseball Prospectus on the web.

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