Simulating every team's chances of reaching October

By Derek Jacques, BaseballProspectus.com

The four American League playoff teams are finally official, with only a bit of jockeying for best record remaining. The odds of the Yankees catching the Red Sox have dropped to the point of being negligible.

The real action is in the National League. All three division leaders lost on Wednesday, and of their pursuers, only the Brewers failed to gain ground. That's a recipe for a great stretch drive. With four days left in the season, seven teams in the National League -- just one team shy of half the circuit -- have hope and faith that their team can win it all.

And in the biggest of derailment stories, the Mets' odds of making the playoffs stood at a seemingly certain 99.8% on Sept. 13, they've lost nine of their last thirteen games. Though they're still favorites to make the playoffs, they have to be eying the list of the worst collapses in baseball history a bit nervously.

Extra digging through the Playoff Odds report by BP's Clay Davenport shows that in 67.7% of our million simulated seasons, the NL Wild Card race ends in a tie from this point forward. This projection includes a fairly substantial possibility of a three-way (17.5%) or even four-way (5.3%) tie.

Here are the postseason odds through Wednesday's games. For more on the methodology of the Report, click here.

For injury reports, commentary and cutting-edge performance analysis, visit Baseball Prospectus on the web.