By Nate Silver, BaseballProspectus.com

Oakland A's

All-Star Dan Haren would yield a good return in the trade market. AP

2007 Record: 76-86, third place
2007 Attendance: 1.9 million, 12th in the AL
2007 Payroll: $79 million, 17th in baseball
Key Free Agents (2007)
LF-R Shannon Stewart
DH-R Mike Piazza
Key Free Agents (2008)
2B-R Mark Ellis
CF-L Mark Kotsay
RHP Rich Harden (club option)
LHP Alan Embree (club option)
Key Long-Term Commitments
3B-L Eric Chavez, $11.3M/year through 2010, plus 2011 club option
SS-R Bobby Crosby, $8.75M/year through 2009
OF/1B-S Nick Swisher, $6.1M/year through 2011, plus 2012 club option
RHP Dan Haren, $4.75M/year through 2009, plus 2010 club option
Key Ready-Now Youngsters
DH-L Jack Cust
1B-L Daric Barton
RF-L Travis Buck
OF-L Chris Snelling
C-R Kurt Suzuki
LHP Dallas Braden
Needs: 1. LF; 2. Relief Pitching; 3. SS

What They Should Do: Strong Sell. Sorry, but there's not enough here to reach the playoffs in a league where it could require 95 wins to do so. The best reasonable-case scenario is that two out of the three of the Harden/Chavez/Crosby group comes back strong, two out of three from the Haren/Blanton/Cust group sustain their 2007 breakouts, and two out of three of Barton/Buck/Suzuki develop faster than expected. All that happens, plus some Billy Beane mojo, and I still think you're looking at 87, 88 wins, tops. All that happens and you've signed Barry Bonds and well -- maybe. But realistically, the A's 79-83 Pythagorean record is a pretty fair representation of their true talent level, and there are just as many scenarios where things get a little ugly.

The A's have quite a few pitchers who could fetch a ton in trade: Harden, Blanton, and maybe even Dan Haren for the right offer; second baseman Mark Ellis has value as well. They also have a lack of superstar-caliber prospects in the system. If the 2010 versions of Barton, Buck and Suzuki are the third-, fifth-, and seventh-best players on your team, you're probably a playoff club, but not if they're one-two-three. So I blow things completely up, bear the consequences of a 100-loss season, and turn in my Get Out of Jail Free card when Crisco Field opens in 2011, or perhaps the year before.

What They Will Do: Weak Sell. A lot of this is going to depend on whether Billy Beane has the energy in him to do another reboot.

Texas Rangers

2007 Record: 75-87, fourth place
2007 Attendance: 2.4 million, eighth in the AL
2007 Payroll: $68 million, 21st in baseball
Key Free Agents (2007)
OF/1B-L Brad Wilkerson
Bobblehead-R Sammy Sosa
Key Free Agents (2008)
3B-L Hank Blalock (club option)
Key Long-Term Commitments
SS-R Michael Young, $14.1M/year through 2013
RHP Vicente Padilla, $11.5M/year through 2009 plus 2010 club option
RHP Kevin Millwood, $10.5M/year through 2010
LF-L Frank Catalanotto, $4M/year through 2009, plus 2010 club option
Key Ready-Now Youngsters
C-S Jarrod Saltalamacchia
RHPs Eric Hurley and Edinson Volquez
LHPs Matt Harrison and Kason Gabbard
OF-R John Mayberry Jr.
DH-S Jason Botts
2B-R German Duran
Needs: 1. Two quality starting pitchers; 2. CF; 3. Big bats at the corners

What They Should Do: Hold. It's a lame answer, but as presently configured the Rangers are a lame team. Although they underperformed their Pythagorean record, they also outscored their equivalent runs total by 50, which means that they actually overperformed their third-order wins total. Much of that was with players like Mark Teixeira and Kenny Lofton in the lineup, guys who won't be around next year. The reason I term this a "hold" rather than a sell is because:

1. The Rangers don't have a lot of tradable commodities. It's hard to move pitchers that have ERAs that begin with a 5, and Hank Blalock, their most attractive asset, is coming off injury;
2. I worry about the brand's value long-term if you trade a guy like Blalock. Dallas/Ft. Worth is inherently one of the weaker markets as far as baseball avidity, and you don't have the built-in reset of an new ballpark opening, the way you do in Fremont or Minneapolis. There's too much chance that you go into the Springfield Mystery Spot if you punt and never come back. With that said, if Jon Daniels could do as well for Blalock as he did for Mark Teixeira, you throw caution to the wind.

What They Will Do: Strong Buy. Evan Grant actually addressed this exact question in an article a couple of weeks ago. The Rangers will adopt an all-or-nothing approach, he says, either targeting premium free agents or letting things play out organically, but not just signing players to fill holes. That's certainly the right line of thinking (or rhetoric); a big buy is much superior to a small buy, although probably inferior to a hold. I'm guessing that the Rangers do get past that tipping point and go the big-buy route. For one thing, their needs are very well aligned to this market, which is heavy on outfield talent. For another, if Daniels is playing for 2011, he might not be around to see it. For a third, Tom Hicks may believe that the brand needs a kick-start, as the Rangers lack marketable players. The truth is that a big buy wouldn't be too bad so long as the currency is cash rather than prospects. It's only Mr. Hicks' money, after all, but it's still unlikely to get the Rangers into the playoffs.

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