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Scout's Take

League insiders break down the four East matchups

Posted: Friday April 20, 2007 3:08PM; Updated: Friday April 20, 2007 6:15PM
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Coach Flip Saunders is under pressure to guide the Pistons through a weak East.
Coach Flip Saunders is under pressure to guide the Pistons through a weak East.
John W. McDonough/SI
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SI.com's Ian Thomsen interviewed four NBA advance scouts -- two from each conference -- to break down the first round of the playoffs. For analysis of the West series, click here.

No. 1 Pistons vs. No. 8 Magic

"If Orlando wins two games, that will be an accomplishment. They weren't in the playoff hunt for much of the year, then they fought like hell at the end to get in there. Dwight Howard has to have a big series and put up big numbers offensively. He's got to get 25-28 points for them to win, and he's capable -- he's better than Detroit's big men, when you consider that Rasheed Wallace is a perimeter player.

"If they play through Howard, then the defense collapses and now Hedo Turkoglu, J.J. Redick, Grant Hill and Jameer Nelson have to make the open shots. But Howard has been so up and down this year -- I've seen times where he's scored in single figures, and other times that he's scored 25. I don't think he was happy with his role at times, that they weren't throwing the ball into him enough. But if he wants the ball then he has to come through for them, that's the bottom line.

"Jameer Nelson is not good enough for them to keep improving. He's a backup point guard -- although this league is full of backups who are starting. Hill is a shell of what he used to be in Detroit, but in this series he has to be like Chris Webber. When Webber gets 10 and 10, he's done his job for Detroit. Grant Hill needs to get 12-14 points, especially against a younger, superior defender like Tayshaun Prince.

"Webber had made a big, big impact with his passing. He sets screens, he scores a little bit, and he was a big upgrade over Nazr Mohammed.

"The real key here is what Detroit decides to do. Last year they would play like they were bored out there, knowing that in the fourth quarter they were going to close it out. They got away with it during the regular season, but in the playoffs when they faced the better teams, they struggled. Is it going to be the same thing this time around? Their attitude is going to be the No. 1 factor, because they're clearly the best team in the East. They have by far the most talent. I don't see anybody in the East beating them.

"They have best shot of getting to the Finals that I've seen from any team in a long time, and I think they're capable of winning the whole thing. But if they stumble and don't get out of the East, I think it will cost Flip Saunders his job. How much easier can it be for them? The East is horrible this year."

Scout's pick: "Let's say the Pistons in five. But if they come in with the lackadaisical attitude, then Orlando will win two games and we'll know that Detroit is in trouble with their attitude."

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