 | Mark Teixeira had a slightly down 2006 season, but he could be due for big numbers again this year as he turns 27 in April. Brad Mangin/SI |
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By Tony Finn, Special to SI.com, SportsGrumblings.com
Fantasy football experts have had a metric-crush with third-year receivers for years. Many have used the informal baseball slang of Mendoza Line for running backs who reach the age of 30 and declare that the beginning of a player's physical decline. In fantasy baseball, the ripe old age when potential turns to production and boys become men is 27, the beginning of a player's prime time and the point when a breakout season is most likely to occur.
The proof of this theory is in the pudding, the stats, so to speak. There isn't enough space in this column to cover all of the statistical data for this large group of players and what they were able to accomplish at the age of 27, but a small sample to motivate a discussion is in order.
At the age of 27:
• Manny Ramirez recorded career highs with 165 RBIs and 131 runs scored.
• Alex Rodriguez had career numbers with 57 home runs and 142 RBIs.
• Miguel Tejada had his best season with 34 home runs and 150 RBIs. He also had career bests in batting average, on-base and slugging percentage as well as OPS.
• Bobby Abreu posted career highs with 31 home runs, 110 RBIs and 118 runs.
I could run an endless stream of abstracts attached to names both household and obscure, but you should begin to understand the directive of this study.
While I don't recommend fantasy managers buy into the NFL third-year receiver theory or the 30-year-old age barrier separating production from decline among running backs, the age-27 phenomenon in baseball isn't a myth or a column topic during the rotisserie offseason. It should be considered one of the golden-rules of pre-draft preparation.
A word to the wise: Some 27-year-olds like Albert Pujols, Matt Holiday and Ryan Howard have already arrived and are considered fantasy studs. They won't have any extra value because of their age.
Owners will want to bone up on the status of this season's long list of 27-year-olds. Thus I offer a brief prelude for the best and the worst of this age group, and their draft day value heading into Spring Training.
For Better
1. Adam LaRoche, 1B, Pittsburgh
LaRoche has shown improvement in each of his big league campaigns. The Braves traded the power-hitting lefty the Pirates for reliever Mike Gonzalez despite his offering strong indications of bigger and better things to come. The Pirates' new first baseman makes a favorable move to hitter-friendly PNC Park and is projected to bat cleanup behind fantasy stud Jason Bay, giving him the protection he needs to reproduce his outstanding .621 slugging percentage away from Turner Field. Don't be surprised if the Bucs' new bag-man hits 40-plus home runs this season.
2. Chris Burke, 2B/CF, Houston
Burke has dual eligibility, which is a plus especially in NL-only formats. While his career has yet to blossom you have to like his chances of being the starting center fielder when camp breaks. Burke has yet to reach double digits in homers during his brief career, but that changes this year. His .276 batting average will climb this season, as will his RBI and stolen base totals. While I project Burke to produce .280-12-65-80-15 in his first full-time role, breakout numbers of .285-20-80-100-20 wouldn't be a surprise.
3. Dan Johnson, 1B, Oakland
Johnson's 2006 campaign was a mess, at least the part spent in Oakland. After starting the season 0-for-27 his continued struggles got him a ticket to Triple-A, where he hammered opposing pitchers. Johnson broke onto the scene in 2005 with a beefy bat, hitting .275-15-58 in just 375 at-bats, but the pressure of a starting assignment in his sophomore season was too much. Nick Swisher will move to the outfield full time this summer, and Johnson will again be the team's starting first baseman. The 27-year-old is the poster child for talent and potential, but it's unlikely he will be drafted in mixed formats this March. Expect numbers in the neighborhood of .270-25-90 from Johnson this season, which is worthy of mixed-league consideration even for a player whose only qualification is in a deep first base pool. Make Johnson a late-round flyer and enjoy his contribution.
4. Mark Teixeira, 1B, Texas
The Rangers' stout left-hander was a first-round bust last year, at least in terms of consistency. His second-half (.291-24-61-51-1) numbers represent an over-the-top split that will be more reflective of his 2007 season as a 27-year-old. Expect a return of Teixeira's 2005 campaign when he registered a .301 batting average with 41 home runs and 144 RBIs. This kind of stat line turns the second- or third-round selection into a draft-day steal.
5. Brad Hawpe, RF, Colorado
Hawpe set career bests in his first full season with the Rockies, and enters prime time as the team's starting right fielder. The flaw in Hawpe's game that could result in lost at-bats is his struggles against left-handed pitching and the presence of teammate Jeff Baker. Hawpe has all of the tools of teammate and 27-year-old fantasy stud Matt Holliday, without the expectation of hitting for average. There's nothing wrong in calling Hawpe a poor man's Holliday.
6. Khalil Greene, SS, San Diego
Fantasy owners must believe like I do that that Greene will overcome his durability issues and strike it statistically rich this season. The shortstop position is one that can make or break manager during league play, and potential run-producing shortstops like Greene are rare. A healthy season for Greene will produce career bests and launch him into the 2008 fantasy spotlight.
Honorable Mention
Adam Dunn, OF, Cincinnati: It's hard to get past the poor average and strikeouts, but he's in line for career bests in home runs and RBIs this season.
Garrett Atkins, 3B, Colorado: Unlikely to have extra draft-day value because of age but proved himself in '06.
Gerald Laird, C, Texas: Can be one of the better hitting catchers in the American League.
David DeJesus, OF, Kansas City: A full season of hitting leadoff could garner him entry into the 20-20 club.
Wilson Betemit, 3B, Dodgers: Finally gets the opportunity to play every day.
Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas: Because of his speed and power potential, Cruz should be considered a strong sleeper candidate. In 104 Triple-A games last year he hit .302 with 20 home runs.
