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| Position-By-Position Rankings |
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By Nate Silver, BaseballProspectus.com Selecting the right pitchers for your fantasy draft requires looking under the hood. Measures such as ERA and, especially, won-lost record, are subject to large degrees of fluctuation from year to year. Instead, our method focuses on strikeout rate, walk rate and ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio, metrics that are far more stable from season to season. Along the way our projections try and fill in the missing links by evaluating a team's defense and run support; the fact that Manny Ramirez is the left fielder in Boston means that Daisuke Matsuzaka's ERA will be higher than it otherwise would be. The starting pitcher pool has grown a bit deeper in recent seasons with an influx of young stars such as Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman. Still, it remains a very top-heavy position, with a steep dropoff in talent after you get past the 12-15 true No. 1 starters in the game. I'm not of the school of thought that says because pitching is such a crapshoot, you should sit on your hands and take your chances on Eric Milton. On the contrary, the handful of pitchers who can be counted on to produce from year to year become all the more valuable. We've listed the top 15 starters instead of the top 10 to make your life a little easier. You may notice that all pitchers on this list are grouped closely together in wins, with only Johan Santana and Brandon Webb projected to win 16 or more games. This is a natural consequence of the way that pitchers are used in the modern game, with five-man rotations and the aggressive use of bullpens. A starter must be very fortunate to get 25 decisions in a season; only 35 pitchers reached that threshold last season. And he must win virtually all of those decisions if he's hoping to win 18 or 19 or 20 games. It's no accident that there were no 20-game winners last season, or that when Roger Clemens made 32 starts in 2005 with an ERA of 1.87, he came away with just 13 W's.
| 2007 PROJECTIONS |
| Rank |
Player |
W |
Sv |
ERA |
WHIP |
K |
| 1. |
Johan Santana |
16 |
0 |
2.97 |
1.08 |
219 |
| Forget Pujols versus Soriano: Johan Santana is the No. 1 player in fantasy baseball. Over his past three seasons he leads all starting pitchers in K's, ERA and WHIP by a wide margin, and is tied with Roy Oswalt with 55 W's. Fantasy baseball, at its core, is about scarcity, and there's no pitcher on the same map as Santana.
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| 2. |
Jake Peavy |
14 |
0 |
3.26 |
1.14 |
205 |
| Peavy's 4.09 ERA wasn't impressive last year, but his 215:62 strikeout-to-walk ratio was among the best in baseball, and PETCO Park is a pitcher's best friend. Similarly, his 11-14 record was uninspiring, but the Padres' offense should be improved and provide him with plenty of support. |
| 3. |
Ben Sheets |
12 |
0 |
3.29 |
1.06 |
171 |
| Speaking of underlying trends, Ben Sheets's K:BB ratio is 7.66:1 over his past three seasons, a figure that recalls the best years of Pedro Martinez. Sheets's conditioning has come under fire after a series of shoulder problems, but even after limiting him to 180 IP for this projection, his WHIP is so good that he ends up at No. 3. |
| 4. |
Chris Carpenter |
13 |
0 |
3.26 |
1.16 |
164 |
| Two mild concerns with Chris Carpenter: He has pitched more than 500 innings between his past two seasons after accounting for his postseason playing time, and we're projecting the Cardinals' top-heavy offense to score just 731 runs this year, which will cut into his run support. He'll do fine for you if you can get him, but odds are that Peavy and Sheets will provide similar value at a fraction of the price. |
| 5. |
Brandon Webb |
16 |
0 |
3.49 |
1.25 |
178 |
| Even hard-core baseball fans forget that Webb won a Cy Young Award last year. Webb's WHIP isn't as good as some of his counterparts because he tends to pitch to contact and resolve any problems by inducing ground balls and double plays, but he's extremely durable and will get plenty of run support this year. |
| 6. |
Jeremy Bonderman |
14 |
0 |
3.50 |
1.24 |
179 |
| He's the one that you want, America. Bonderman is more durable and has better strikeout-to-walk numbers than Justin Verlander, and his raw stuff is nearly as nasty. In front of a great defense in a good pitchers' park, he's a major sleeper. |
| 7. |
Roy Oswalt |
14 |
0 |
3.69 |
1.23 |
168 |
| Oswalt is just a hair overrated. He has transformed into more of a finesse pitcher with a strikeout rate that's only about league average. He looks ready to settle into a Mike Mussina pattern of being very good but not great. |
| 8. |
C.C. Sabathia |
14 |
0 |
3.76 |
1.24 |
171 |
| Sabathia had a breakout year in Cleveland that went largely ignored because of the disappointing performance of his team. PECOTA thinks that his combination of velocity, size and big fat hairy intimidation makes him this generation's Don Drysdale. |
| 9. |
Carlos Zambrano |
14 |
0 |
3.85 |
1.29 |
209 |
| Zambrano has issued 282 walks over his past three seasons, more than any other pitcher in baseball. He has pitched about as well as you can in spite of that, but the high pitch counts and WHIPs that those walks produce make him a far riskier pick than is generally acknowledged. |
| 10. |
Curt Schilling |
14 |
0 |
3.84 |
1.23 |
160 |
| Schilling may be high here. PECOTA is guessing that he'll be able to squeeze another 200 innings out of his arm, but injury maven Will Carroll gives him a "red light," citing concerns about his conditioning and ankle. Then again, Schill loves nothing more than proving people wrong. |
| 11. |
John Lackey |
14 |
0 |
3.74 |
1.28 |
173 |
| A good test to separate a casual fan from a fantasy guru is to ask him to write down the names of the 20 best pitchers in baseball, and see whether John Lackey's name appears on the list. |
| 12. |
Daisuke Matsuzaka |
14 |
0 |
3.83 |
1.26 |
176 |
| Let's face it. You're not going to get him. Someone in your league is a Red Sox fan, and he's going to overbid. A 3.83 ERA would be a tremendous performance for a rookie pitcher in Fenway Park, but asking for more than that following Matsuzaka-san's mediocre spring training is asking too much. |
| 13. |
Roy Halladay |
14 |
0 |
3.69 |
1.26 |
134 |
| See also Roy Oswalt. Halladay is a superlative pitcher, but the combination of a low strikeout rate, a good hitter's park, and 10 starts a season against the Yankees and Red Sox means that his ERA is bound to rise. |
| 14. |
John Smoltz |
14 |
0 |
3.87 |
1.27 |
165 |
| PECOTA draws a pretty bright line at this point in the draft. There are still plenty of good starters to be had, but all of them come with some kind of caveat or another. Smoltz, for that matter, is turning 40 this year and the Braves' infield defense is going to be pretty wretched. |
| 15. |
Jered Weaver |
11 |
0 |
3.73 |
1.21 |
141 |
| Can a player be overrated and underrated at the same time? Weaver's awesome debut last year went unnoticed because of Justin Verlander and Francisco Liriano, but we're nervous enough about his health that we're limiting him to 165 innings. Even so, there are few pitchers left on the board that can match his upside. |
| SLEEPER |
| Anthony Reyes, Cardinals |
11 |
0 |
3.81 |
1.22 |
146 |
| Scouts are divided on Reyes's stuff, but his strikeout rate was excellent, and the Cardinals' fine defense should keep his WHIP and ERA down. With additional experience under his belt, look for more starts like his gem against the Tigers in Game 1 of the World Series. |
| BUST |
| Jason Schmidt, Dodgers |
11 |
0 |
4.03 |
1.30 |
170 |
| After a series of renovations, Dodger Stadium no longer plays as a strong pitchers' park, and the Dodgers may struggle to score runs for Schmidt with J.D. Drew departed to Boston. Considering his injury risk and WHIPs that are inflated because of his high walk rate, there's no reason to treat Schmidt as a premium fantasy commodity. |
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