Do wide receivers really break out by year three?

	First Year Player Year Rec Yds TDs Anquan Boldin 2003 101 1,377 8 Michael Clayton 2004 80 1,193 7 Joey Galloway 1995 67 1,039 7 Terry Glenn 1996 90 1,132 6 Marvin Harrison 1996 64 836 8 Kevin Johnson 1999 66 986 8 Keyshawn Johnson 1996 63 844 8 Randy Moss 1998 69 1,313 17
	Second Year Player Year Rec Yds TDs David Boston 2000 71 1,156 7 Nate Burleson 2004 68 1,006 9 Plaxico Burress 2001 66 1,008 6 Germane Crowell 1999 81 1,338 7 Rod Gardner 2002 71 1,006 8 Torry Holt 2000 82 1,635 6 Darrell Jackson 2001 70 1,081 8 Andre Johnson 2004 79 1,142 6 Terrell Owens 1997 60 936 8 Marcus Robinson 1999 84 1,400 9
	Third Year Player Year Rec Yds TDs Marty Booker 2001 100 1,071 8 Chris Chambers 2003 64 963 11 Albert Connell 1999 62 1,132 7 Antonio Freeman 1997 81 1,243 12 Chad Johnson 2003 90 1,355 10 Santana Moss 2003 74 1,105 10 Eric Moulds 1998 67 1,368 9 Mushin Muhammad 1998 68 941 6 Rod Smith 1997 70 1,180 12 Steve Smith 2003 88 1,110 7 Travis Taylor 2002 61 869 6 Javon Walker 2004 89 1,382 12 Reggie Wayne 2003 68 838 7

By Ray Flowers, Special to SI.com, FantasyFootballChamps.com

One popular notion among fantasy owners is that third-year wide receivers are most likely to have a breakout season and are great draft day targets. Is this true or is it just a tale passed on from generation to generation of fantasy football fanatics?

We'll look at WRs during the first three seasons of their careers to see if there are any discernable patterns than we can uncover to help you locate those draft day bargains. We'll look at historical trends, last year's stats as well as those to watch in 2007.

Because of the variety of different scoring systems used in fantasy football today, I've established these benchmarks as worthy of the moniker of "breakout receiver" (note: these numbers are a subjective "cutoff" point, but we had to start somewhere): 60 receptions, 800 yards, 6 touchdowns

A receiver who reaches two of those three plateaus could have a strong fantasy season, like Chris Henry in 2006, who had only 36 receptions and 605 yards but scored six TDs. However, in order to be considered a breakout WR, he has to reach all three statistical levels in one season during one of their first three NFL campaigns.

In a recent study, covering a 10-year span between 1995-2004, there were 337 WRs who played at least one game in the first three seasons after he was drafted. Of the 337, only 31, or 9.2 percent, had a breakout season in at least one of their first three years in the league. Thus expectations should be slightly muted of finding that breakout wide receiver in any season since there just aren't that many WRs who produce the big numbers early in their careers.

The 31 receivers who qualified are in the table on the right. The players are listed only once, the first season that they recorded a breakout season. A player could theoretically produce a breakout season in each of his first three seasons but only be listed once in the first year column.

Here are the percentages, plus average stats for those players:

1st year breakout = 2.4% (8 out of 337); 75 catches, 1,090 yards, 9 TD

2nd year breakout = 4.1% (10 out of 243); 73 catches, 1,171 yards, 7 TD

3rd year breakout = 8.7% (13 out of 149); 76 catches, 1,120 yards, 9 TD

In total, 31 of the 149 receivers (20.8 percent) had a breakout season by the end of year three.

*The numbers for years two and three do not equal 337 because (a) once a player reached the breakout level, he is no longer counted in subsequent seasons; and (b) not all players participated in more than one or two seasons.

2006 Review

	First Year Player Team Rec Yds TDs Marques Colston NO 70 1,038 8
	Second Year Player Team Rec Yds TDs Braylon Edwards CLE 61 884 6
	Third Year Player Team Rec Yds TDs Roy Williams DET 82 1,310 7 Lee Evans BUF 82 1,292 8 Jerricho Cotchery NYJ 82 961 6 Larry Fitzgerald* ARI 69 946 6 *Fitzgerald actually reached all three plateaus for a breakout season in his second NFL campaign in 2005 (103 catches, 1,409 yards, 10 TDs).
	More Than Three Years Chad Johnson, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Donald Driver, Torry Holt, Terrell Owens, Steve Smith, Laveranues Coles, Mike Furrey, Javon Walker, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, Darrell Jackson

There were only 22 wide receiver breakout seasons last year, regardless of experience. The breakdown by year is on the right.

The most notable name on the list is Mike Furrey. Furrey has been in the NFL for four seasons and misses out on a 1st, 2nd or 3rd year WR breakout despite a 98-catch, 1,098 yards, 6 TD season in 2006 for the Lions. Furrey switched between offense and defense early in his career and returned full-time to wide receiver last year. He technically didn't make our three-year cutoff point and was added to the "over" category instead.

To sum up, there was one first-year receiver, one second-year receiver, four third-year receivers and 16 "older" players who recorded at least 60 receptions, 800 yards and 8 TDs. Of the six receivers who qualified as a breakout, only Larry Fitzgerald has reached those numbers in more than one season.