10-Foot Pole Team

Fantasy Football: 2007 Preview RANKINGS: Top 200 | QB | RB | WR | TE | K | D GEORGOPOULOS: Indiv. Def. Player rankings SI: Complete fantasy football preview SI: Analyzing all 32 running back situations SI: Next elite QB? | Take top QBs early? SI: More burning questions for 2007 PROTRADE: Fan-driven stat projections CARROLL: Previewing potential injury situations CARROLL: Team-by-team list of injury risks QUINTONG: Preseason Burning Questions: AFC QUINTONG: Preseason Burning Questions: NFC QUINTONG: Who should go No. 2 overall? GEORGOPOULOS: Drafting kickers, defenses FLOWERS: Breakout third-year wide receivers FLOWERS: Key QB and RB handcuff selections HICKEY: Injured players on the rebound BEACOM: Training Camp Battle: Minnesota RB BEACOM: Training Camp Battle: Tampa Bay QB BEACOM: Training Camp Battle: Denver TE BEACOM: Training Camp Battle: Dallas K BEACOM: Training Camp Battle: Cleveland QB BEACOM: Training Camp Battle: Green Bay RB BEACOM: Training Camp Battle: N.Y. Giants RB BEACOM: Training Camp Battle: New England WR NAZAREK: The Stud RB Theory of drafting EPSTEIN: All 10-Foot Pole fantasy team MOCK DRAFT: Aug. 6 -- online experts MOCK DRAFT: Sports Illustrated's experts FANTASY DRAFT: SI.com's Experts League Draft

By David Epstein, SI.com

Fantasy dilettantes can figure out to take LT and LJ up top, but as any fantasy GM who took Edgerrin James or Cadillac Williams last season knows, sometimes the most important piece in the fantasy puzzle is the one you don't put in place. Whether it's age, injury, declining skills, a sorry supporting cast, or a rookie nipping at their heels, here are a group of ballers who will be overvalued on draft day. Pick at your own risk:

Joey Harrington (QB, Falcons): What a way to win the job! Harrington isn't the worst QB in the world, but he was the second worst QB in the world in '06 in terms of yards per attempt -- a putrid 5.8. He also likes to throw 12 touchdowns. He's done that in three of his five seasons, including the last two, in which he's thrown for 27 interceptions. The biggest knock on Michael Vick was his completion percentage (53.8% lifetime). Harrington's lifetime completion percentage is a barely better 55.2. Imagine Vick minus a few TDs, plus a few INTs, minus all that running, plus piano lessons, and you've got Harrington.

Matt Schaub (QB, Texans): The best predictor of future QB success -- not counting not being on the Texans -- is past success. Schaub has two career starts, a 52.2 completion percentage, and a pick for every TD. Oh and he's on the Texans. If his name comes up on draft day, the safe bet is to do what he'll be doing all year: run for your life.

Jamal Lewis (RB, Browns): Lewis has averaged 3.5 yards per carry since his four-month jail stint on drug charges before the 2005 season, and the once feared power back looked tentative going through holes in '06. He has never been much of a receiver, and now that he's on the Browns, against whom he's had four games of 170 or more yards and two over 200, he can't run all over them. Good for the Browns, bad for your fantasy team.

Clinton Portis (RB, Redskins): Never mind that I took him in the SI Fantasy Draft (you gotta take risks when you pick last!). Portis dislocated his shoulder last year in the preseason, and then missed half of the season with a broken right hand. In the half he did play, he had only one 100-yard game. In the first week of training camp this year, he was already missing days with a stubborn case of tendonitis in his right knee. Right guard Randy Thomas was missing camp time after offseason knee surgery, and titanic trail blazing left guard Derrick Dockery is gone to the Bills. In fairness, Portis scored seven touchdowns in his eight games, but he's suddenly injury prone and playing behind a line that's weaker than it was in '06.

Ahman Green (RB, Texans): The 30-year-old Green has slowed down a bit in the last two years, and running behind the porous Texans line is going to do for Green what the Cardinals line did for Edge last year: permit entry. Green had only 12 TDs in the last three years, to go with nine fumbles. In an effort to reduce his wear and tear, the Texans staff may well look to 245-pound RB Ron Dayne in goal line situations.