A league insider's look at AFC divisional playoffs

SI.com's Don Banks had a veteran AFC insider assess his conference's two divisional-round playoff games.

SCOUT'S TAKE: NFC Playoff Games

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens

Peyton Manning has not been able to shake his reputation as a shaky playoff quarterback. Last week he threw three picks in the Colts' win over the Chiefs last week. Peter Read Miller/SI

• COLTS --  Indy's run game really led the way last week against the Chiefs, but I don't think Joseph Addai can run the ball that way against the Ravens. More likely the Colts will run for somewhere between 50 and 100 yards this week. Baltimore has better edge players on their defense with Terrell Suggs and Adalius Thomas, and generally those Colts stretch plays don't work as well on 3-4 teams ...

I'd like to think last week was an aberration for Peyton Manning, because typically if he has that kind of game in the regular season, he comes back and plays well the next week. But I don't know if you can ignore his record in the postseason. After a while, you've got to start looking at the facts. I don't know if he puts too much pressure on himself in the playoffs, or isn't as confident, but there's definitely something to the fact that he doesn't perform as well in the postseason ...

You had to be impressed with the Colts' run defense against K.C. They just completely shut down the Chiefs and Larry Johnson. It just shows you that anybody who thinks they know what's going to happen in the NFL is crazy. They're going to get another test this week, because Jamal Lewis is still a pretty good player ...

History says Manning has struggled against 3-4 defenses. If you blitz him, he's great at reading it and getting rid of the ball. But a 3-4 nullifies the blitz, because when you play a 3-4 team like Baltimore, San Diego, New England or Pittsburgh, they have the ability to bring a fourth rusher that the offense has to treat like a blitzer, with maybe a running back having to pick him up. But all you're really doing is bringing four, without giving up anything in coverage behind you.

• RAVENS -- Late in the year, Baltimore's offense wasn't really clicking, and I'd be a little worried about that if I were the Ravens, because they're going to have to score a little bit to beat the Colts. You know the Ravens' formula. They've won a lot of games playing to their defense and having Matt Stover kick a bunch of field goals. It really is a lot like 2000 for them, when Trent Dilfer was in the Steve McNair role ...

It's not like Baltimore doesn't have some playmakers, with Todd Heap, Mark Clayton, Derrick Mason, guys like that. They could put some points up against the Colts. But it's kind of like you're getting to the playoffs and then asking them to change personalities. You've gone all season long without asking that offense to win a shootout. I don't know if Baltimore can do that. I don't know if it can score 27 points in this game on offense, without a defensive touchdown or a big return of some sort ...

For Baltimore to win, you're going to need to see the defense with a couple takeaways, giving the offense some short fields. If the offense gets a touchdown and three field goals, then they might get in that 17 to 27 point range, and maybe win 23-14 or so ...

Steve McNair doesn't look like a league MVP, like he was in 2003. He's not as accurate. His arm strength isn't as good. He can get hot a little bit, but he can't put a team on his back any more. But that's not his game in Baltimore, and that's not their offense. It's not that he won four more games for them this year, it's that he didn't lose four games for them, like some of their other quarterbacks have. He's made all the difference in the world for them.