SI.com's experts weigh in with their predictions for Saturday night's race in Richmond, Va.
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LARS
ANDERSON |
MARK
BEECH |
TOM
BOWLES |
| The winner of the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 will be... |
Tony Stewart
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Tony Stewart
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Dale Earnhardt Jr.
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| Why? |
| Stewart has been sterling in the Car of Tomorrow this year, and he's a three-time winner at Richmond. Look for him to get win No. 4 this season on Saturday night.
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He's been nothing short of terrific in the second half, and Richmond provides a perfect place for him to cap off the regular season. He's got three wins there, as well as 11 top-10 finishes in 17 races.
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Chances are Junior's not going to make the Chase no matter how he does Saturday night -- 128 points is simply too much to make up. But Richmond is the site of his last win (May, 2006) and it's likely the No. 8 team will put their best foot forward ... just in case a miracle's around the corner.
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| Keep an eye on ... |
Denny Hamlin
Richmond is Hamlin's home track, and he has history of performing well on the .75-mile oval. In three career starts at the track, he's finished third or better twice.
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Kevin Harvick
Unfortunately for fans of Junior, Harvick is a stud at Richmond, where he has a series-best driver rating of 125.4. Even if he doesn't win, he should finish well enough to deny Earnhardt a berth in the Chase.
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Denny Hamlin
Richmond is one of two hometown tracks Hamlin would love to win at -- and he's already come close on several occasions, scoring two top-3 finishes in three career starts here. With the way Joe Gibbs Racing has mastered the Car of Tomorrow this season, expect him to be in the mix Saturday night.
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| Don't expect much from ... |
Juan Pablo Montoya
Though he's improving every race, Montoya has struggled this season on short tracks like Richmond. He finished 26th here in the spring.
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Carl Edwards
He's been hot lately, and I expect him to make a lot of noise in the Chase, but Richmond isn't one of his favorite tracks. His driver rating there is only 74.3, and he has just two top-10 finishes in six starts.
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Several Chasers
With 10 drivers already locked in once the race gets underway, they'll have little to race for if they don't have a car capable of winning. Hopefully, the short track action of Richmond will get them going -- but there's no guarantee.
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| Mythical SI.com Cup |
TOTAL POINTS: 3,379
Last week: 129 (Tony Stewart) |
TOTAL POINTS: 3,413
Last week: 190 (Jimmie Johnson) |
TOTAL POINTS: 3,517
Last week: 103 (Clint Bowyer) |
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More experts' predictions ...
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LEWIS
FRANCK |
TIM
TUTTLE |
MARK
ZESKE |
| The winner of the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 will be... |
Jimmie Johnson
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Denny Hamlin
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Kyle Busch
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| Why? |
| Not just because he won the last race here and not just because the worst Johnson can do is come out of Saturday night tied for the points race lead; it's all about momentum, baby. Johnson said after winning last week's race at California Speedway that the team picks up the pace this time of year. Yup, it's all
momentum.
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He was third in May and runs particularly well on the lower-banked tracks like Richmond in the Car of Tomorrow. Hamilin won New Hampshire and was third at Martinsville and Phoenix. Plus, he was second at Richmond in May '06 in the conventional car.
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Busch loves Richmond and has quietly put himself in position to be a threat in the Chase playoffs. In five career starts at Richmond, his worst finish has been fifth. He's been second in the last two races at the Virginia track.
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| Keep an eye on ... |
Tony Stewart
Now that many teams, including Ford teams, have gained ground on Hendrick Motorsports' dominance of the Car of Tomorrow, Stewart gets the nod with three wins in 17 tries, and 11 and top-10s. Only Dale Earnhardt Jr,. with three wins in 16 tries, and seven top-fives to Stewart's five top-fives, has a record like Smoke's, but Earnhardt can't catch a break.
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Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Junior desperately needs a win to have any chance of making the Chase. He also needs a win desperately for the pride of winning; his last came at Richmond in May '06. Earnhardt also has victories at RIR in '00 and '04. His best two CoT races have been fourth at New Hampshire and fifth at Martinsville and Bristol, so his setup is close. This may be his best shot at winning this season.
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Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Earnhardt Jr. will be worth watching as he desperately tries to find a way into the playoffs, but Jimmie Johnson won at Richmond in the spring. Johnson won last week. And Johnson will start the Chase for the Championship on top of the point standings.
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| Don't expect much from ... |
Kenny Wallace
Although he's getting one of the best rides of his current career as he fills in for the injured Ricky Rudd at Yates, Newman, Haas, Lanigan Racing, in 23 times at Richmond he has yet to crack into the top 10.
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Jamie McMurray
In eight CoT oval races, McMurray's best finishes are ninth at Bristol and Martinsville. He's been 16th or worse in the other six. Roush Fenway has been playing catch-up all season with the CoT.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Truex has had a great second half of the season, but he's struggled at Richmond during his two Nextel Cup seasons. In the spring he finished 28th and was still running at the end of the race, but that was a substantial upgrade from his '06 results
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| Mythical SI.com Cup |
TOTAL POINTS: 3,350
Last week: 134 (Kasey Kahne) |
TOTAL POINTS: 3,679
Last week: 97 (Jeff Gordon) |
TOTAL POINTS: 3,308
Last week: 146 (Matt Kenseth) |
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