Gordon has history, motivation on his side at Phoenix

SI.com's experts weigh in with their predictions for Sunday's race in Phoenix, Ariz.

LARS ANDERSON MARK BEECH TOM BOWLES The winner of the Checker Auto Parts 500 will be ... Jimmie Johnson Jeff Gordon Clint Bowyer Why? ohnson, the winner of the last three races, hasn't taken a checkered flag in the desert before, but he's also never arrived at PIR with the kind of momentum he has at this moment. Not only is he historically very strong at Phoenix (14 top-10 finishes in 17 starts), but he's also desperate to make up ground on Jimmie Johnson. And the way things are going, the only way he'll do that is by winning. I expect him to be going all out on Sunday. The Chase Cinderella saw his glass slipper crack last week at Texas; but while the title is out of reach, the chance for victory remains at the track where he made his Cup debut. Expect the RCR man to reassert why he's been the surprise of the playoffs thus far. Keep an eye on ... Jeff Gordon Gordon won the spring race at PIR, and he needs to take a significant slice out of Johnson's 30-point lead in the standings on Sunday to have a realistic shot at overtaking Johnson in the season-finale at Homestead. Expect Gordon to be ultra-aggressive in the last 100 laps. Kevin Harvick His 113.8 driver rating at Phoenix is tops among drivers in the Chase, and he's got two wins there in nine starts. If Gordon or Johnson doesn't win this race, I expect Harvick will. Jimmie Johnson The Chase point leader is looking to accomplish a feat that hasn't been achieved since 1998; win four Cup races in a row. With a Phoenix rap sheet that's 0-for-8, getting to Victory Lane's gonna be tough. However, he's run 2nd and 4th in his last two starts here. Don't expect much from ... Casey Mears The lone Hendrick driver not in the Chase hasn't had much success at PIR in the past. In seven starts at the track his average finish is 31.4. Martin Truex Jr. His average finish at Phonix in three races is 18.0. Truex has had a few strong runs in the Chase, but he hasn't been consistent enough to make me think he's going to match his third-place finish from Texas last week. Dale Earnhardt Jr. With just two races left, Junior is trying to erase a goose egg in the win column; but his prospects don't look good. With an average finish of just 19th in his last five starts at Phoenix, don't expect him to contend. Mythical SI.com Cup TOTAL POINTS: 4,638 Last week: 190 (Jimmie Johnson) TOTAL POINTS: 4,712 Last week: 130 (Tony Stewart) TOTAL POINTS: 4,659 Last week: 175 (Matt Kenseth)

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