
Batter UpPreviewing the 16 regions of baseball's post-season tourneyPosted: Friday June 1, 2007 9:44AM; Updated: Friday June 1, 2007 12:19PM With only a week until the Major League draft and three weeks until the College World Series in Omaha, college baseball is heating up in a big way. Last week, the NCAA selection committee announced the 64 teams that made the postseason tournament, playing in 16 regionals across the country. These regionals, hosted by a home university in each instance, will send one university to the next round after playing a double elimination weekend tournament. The 16 regionals are below, with my picks for each regional along with the skinny on every team involved. NASHVILLE REGIONAL
The Favorite: Vanderbilt has been a powerhouse all season, and they enter the postseason having averaged nine runs per game in a SEC tournament sweep. Being able to move two of their 60+ inning pitchers to the bullpen gives their staff admirable depth behind David Price. The Rest: Michigan was set to be a top seed until a bad showing in the Big Ten tournament and now the Wolverines have a rematch of last year's regional against the Commodores. That the top two teams will eventually face off is all but a given, as Memphis was one of the selection committee's most generous entries. I'll even predict Austin Peay upsets Memphis on Saturday behind the 10-win arm of Matt Reynolds. The Pick: Vanderbilt. Michigan matches up well, but Vanderbilt has a mid-June date in Omaha. CHARLOTTESVILLE REGIONALThe Favorite: Virginia stumbled against the Tar Heels in the ACC Tournament, but this is a team well-prepared for a short series. Entering the postseason, I have sophomore Jake Thompson (11-0, 1.35 ERA), not Price, winning the Roger Clemens Award for the best collegiate pitcher. The Rest: Rutgers has some helium following its Big East championship, but the team's 4.61 ERA is not akin to success in June. In fact, it will be a surprise if Rutgers topples the defending national champions, Oregon State, on Friday. A good bullpen and three solid starters is a good formula for the Beavers pulling off an upset in Virginia. Don't expect the Patriot League champions, Lafayette College, to have a long stay, but they are still a feel-good story reaching the tournament for the first time since 1990. The Pick: I'm sticking with the favorite here, in hopes that Virginia and Vanderbilt play in a loaded super-regional. SAN DIEGO REGIONALThe Favorite: The best team in California, the San Diego Torreros have top-heavy pitching to match anyone in the country. Brian Matusz slowed up towards the end of the season, but any team with three pitchers passing 100 innings are a good bet in the regionals. The Rest: The usual best team in California, Cal State Fullerton, stands in San Diego's way. The Titans have been up and down this season, but like usual, George Horton's team should be mistake prone throughout the weekend. Minnesota, the Big Ten's third team, brings a deep offense with seven .300 hitters to the coast, but the question will be starting pitchers. San Diego also can't afford to overlook the WAC champion Fresno State Bulldogs, which boasts a team .462 slugging percentage. The Pick: Again, the favorite, San Diego gets my choice. Cal State Fullerton is in an off season, and even if the Torreros fall once, expect them to get right back up. LONG BEACH REGIONALThe Favorite: Long Beach State is a bit of a surprise to be hosting a regional, but good facilities and a good May were the right combination for the selection committee. Still, the Dirtbags have one of the nation's deepest teams, with a bench and bullpen to match anyone. The Rest: No Friday match-up has me more excited than the next two teams in this regional: UCLA vs. Pepperdine. UCLA teetered along .500, but a good non-conference schedule left the Bruins a higher seed than Pepperdine. While the Bruins can hit, Pepperdine is all about the pitching, with Barry Enright (12-4, 1.73 ERA) a dangerous presence. University of Illinois-Chicago has a tough road to climb, but if they can ever get to closer David Cales -- 12 saves, 0.84 ERA, 29 strikeouts to one walk -- then goodnight. The Pick: I love how Pepperdine stacks up on weekends, with three good starters, a solid closer, and versatility in Adam Olbrychowski. My first upset pick is the Waves. HOUSTON REGIONALThe Favorite: Rice has had a tumultuous season battling injuries and early season upsets, but as usual, Wayne Graham's crew has gotten it in gear. Before losing to Memphis in the Conference USA tournament (who they then beat 20-9), the Owls hadn't lost a game since the weekend opener to Houston on April 13. No team is as hot in college baseball. The Rest: Standing in Rice's way is one of the nation's toughest two seeds, Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs are well-balanced with a .484 team slugging, a combined weekend starters' record of 27-6, and one of the nation's top closers in Sam Demel. TCU has two games of experience against their Friday opponent, Baylor, a young team with some weapons in shortstop Beamer Weems and closer Nick Cassavechia. The four seed, Prairie View A&M, faces Rice in a regional again after almost shocking them a year ago. No team is more exciting, as A&M just works counts (.406 team on-base percentage) and steals bases (154 steals). The Pick: One of the toughest to choose, battling between the nation's hottest team and my preseason sleeper pick. I'll hold true to myself and go with TCU winning a tough one against Rice on Monday. COLLEGE STATION REGIONALThe Favorite: I've talked to multiple coaches who have called Texas A&M their toughest opponent of the season, and it's not hard to understand why. The Aggies have a lot of tough arms including Kyle Nicholson (11-1, 1.92 ERA), and five guys between 8-11 home runs. Offensive balance and top-heavy pitching is a good formula for CWS success. The Rest: Expect Louisiana-Lafayette fans to storm College Station, but it's not home, where the Ragin' Cajuns are 22-2 on the season. The team still has four hitters with 10 home runs, three good starters, and a closer in Danny Farquhar with 112 strikeouts in 83.2 innings. Lafayette will have their hands full with Ohio State's Cory Luebke (8-1, 1.84 ERA) on Friday, though the Buckeyes will struggle with pitching depth after that. Le Moyne will have its hands full with Texas A&M, but their two aces and closer are a combined 24-4, 2.36 ERA. The Pick: Texas A&M in a sweep. FAYETTEVILLE REGIONALThe Favorite: It's tough to find two better pitchers in a weekend rotation than Nick Schmidt and Jess Todd, who control the fate of Arkansas. With sub-3 ERAs in the SEC, it's hard to think either will falter, and the offense has enough power to back up subpar starts, led by 22 home runs from Danny Hamblin. The Rest: The second seed, Creighton, will bring to Arkansas one of the nation's underrated pitching staffs. Ben Mancuso (10-2, 2.28) will bring trouble on Friday, but the Blue Jays also have a great bullpen with Andy Masten (16 saves, 1.74) and Pat Venditte (8-2, 1.83). They are the favorites to beat Oklahoma State, who will battle strength with strength, as the Cowboys .526 slugging percentage is representative of their offensive juggernaut. With any decent pitching, the Cowboys become very dangerous. The regional is not set up well for America East conference champion Albany, who had a negative run differential on the season. The Pick: I'm going with Arkansas, but I don't doubt things could get interesting if Oklahoma State pairs together a couple good pitching outings. COLUMBIA (MO) REGIONALThe Favorite: Despite struggling a bit in the Big 12 tournament last weekend, Missouri landed a regional host bid probably through the strength of beating Texas in Austin in early May. The Tigers are a really young team that does everything well, with their biggest strength a deep and versatile bullpen behind Scooter Hicks (4-0, 1.48). The Rest: The Miami Hurricanes aren't used to leaving town on regional weekend, but despite an 11-11 record away from home, the 'Canes are dangerous. Miami has good starters and one of the nation's most dangerous bats in Yonder Alonso (.377, 18 home runs). Battling them on Friday will be Louisville, a veteran, top-heavy team dangerous on weekends. Miami will have its hands full facing the Cardinals' team 2.89 ERA. Worst for Missouri might be having to face Kent State's Chris Carpenter on Friday, because while enigmatic, Carpenter has first-round stuff that could shut down any team. The Pick: The Kent State factor makes this a hard regional to pick, as Missouri would struggle if Carpenter bests them on Friday. While Louisville is particularly tempting, I'll stick with the Tigers to narrowly get through this weekend. 1 of 2 | ||||
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