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Top 20 MLB Amateur Draft Prospects (cont.)

Posted: Thursday June 7, 2007 9:44AM; Updated: Thursday June 7, 2007 9:44AM
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By Bryan Smith, Special to SI.com

Clemson's Daniel Moskos, who features a mid-90s fastball, projects as a top 10 pick.
Clemson's Daniel Moskos, who features a mid-90s fastball, projects as a top 10 pick.
AP
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11. Beau Mills 3B, Lewis-Clark State
After leaving Fresno State for academic reasons last season Mills transferred to legendary coach Ed Cheff's NAIA powerhouse, and for all of 2007 Mills has been the most talented player on the diamond. He set the NAIA single-season home run mark with 38 this season, but that overstates his power; he's more of an all-around hitter. Mills lacks a position (he'll end up at first base or left field), so his bat will have to carry him at the next level.
Reminds me of: Josh Phelps in his Baseball Prospectus cover boy days.

12. Madison Bumgarner LHP, North Carolina HS
Given his combination of size (6-foot-5, 220) and handedness, Bumgarner was long slated as a first-round prospect. At this point he's merely a fastball pitcher, but that has been enough, as the pitch has routinely been in the mid-90s this season. A pitching coach will need to instruct Bumgarner on a curveball as well as finding a consistent delivery, but the blueprint for success is there.
Reminds me of: Steve Avery, shortly after coming up.

13. Matt Harvey RHP, Connecticut HS
At the onset of the summer showcase tour a year ago Harvey was the top prep pitcher on most team's draft boards. Since then nothing has changed within his repertoire. The long right-hander still pitches in the low 90s and can touch 96, and he still shows off a nasty curveball that led to six strikeouts in six at-bats at the East Coast Showcase. But a lack of the step forward this spring and the presence of Boras as his agent have led to Harvey's small drop.
Reminds me of: Matt Morris.

14. Matt Dominguez 3B, California HS
A bit overshadowed by teammate Moustakas and fellow California third baseman Vitters, Dominguez was a little lost in the fray this spring. However, in comparisons to the two aforementioned players, Dominguez stood out with professional-ready defense, which is the biggest knock on the other two. Dominguez doesn't have huge power but it plays as average for the position, and he has enough strength to add to the frame that he could be looking at 30 home runs in the right scenario.
Reminds me of: Joe Crede.

15. Michael Main RHP, Florida HS
Main has been known to scouts since he was a freshman, when he was already touching 90 mph. Since then his velocity has moved up even he has remained on the small side -- at a shade over 6 feet, Main has hit 98 mph this season. A gifted center fielder with fantastic 60 times, he has scouts excited at the prospect of how his athleticism will help on the mound. His secondary pitches have been inconsistent, but experts have praised either his curveball or his change up at different times this spring.
Reminds me of: Tim Hudson, in terms of athleticism.

16. Blake Beavan RHP, Texas HS
Beavan is the stereotypical Texan right-hander, a hard-thrower who's built like a truck. His 6-foot-7, 210-pound frame has little weight to add, and his delivery has been inconsistent, but scouts believe he'll pitch 93-95 mph regularly in the pros. What makes Beavan special is his lights-out slider, a pitch that could land him a closer job down the road. However, that's way down the road, as his size has many teams envisioning an innings-eater.
Reminds me of: Andy Benes.

17. Casey Weathers RHP, Vanderbilt
A position player when he arrived on the Vanderbilt campus, like so many converts, Weathers' offensive production never matched his throwing arm. Once he moved to the mound everything clicked, and Weathers has been a perfect fit as a closer. A bulldog, he attacks hitters with mid-to-high-90s heat. He doesn't get on top of his slider often enough, but it can be a weapon at 90 mph. Weathers will move up the ladder faster than any player in the draft, and for many ailing bullpens he should save the trouble of a hefty winter purchase for 2008.
Reminds me of: Felix Rodriguez.

18. Kevin Ahrens 3B, Texas HS
Ahrens has really boosted his stock this spring, proving that a late-career move to switch-hitting wasn't a bad idea. A natural right-handed hitter, he generates very good bat speed and power from both sides. A shortstop in Texas, Ahrens probably won't play a game at the position in pro ball, but his arm is more than adequate for the hot corner. He's a patient hitter who dominated a tough Houston baseball scene, and with no high bonus demands associated with his name, he could go as high as 10th overall.
Reminds me of: Ken Caminiti.

19. Devin Mesoraco C, Pennsylvania HS
The kid from Punxsutawney has kept hitting and never looked back in 2007, sneaking in from the second round to a potential date within the top 10. A high school star seems to do this every season, and while this type of player is often overstated, he sometimes becomes Jay Bruce. Mesoraco is a very good defensive catcher with a strong arm and above-average lateral movement. At the plate he mixes a level swing with very good bat speed, lending well to strong power on fastballs.
Reminds me of: Joe Girardi with power.

20. Josh Smoker LHP, Georgia HS
Smoker has been on the scouts' radar for a long time, so I think he's been a bit overrated within his draft class. This pool has solid depth for high school pitching, and while Smoker is a very good southpaw his ceiling is not that of the names above him on this list. Smoker throws around 90 mph with the best left-handed slider south of Price's. Smoker hasn't needed a changeup often at Georgia, and if he keeps control of his fastball he might not need it often in pro ball, either.
Reminds me of: John Danks.

Bryan Smith is a freelance writer and a weekly contributor to Baseball Prospectus. His work has also appeared in Baseball America, Baseball Analysts and the Hardball Times.

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