Teams most likely to rise, fall in second half of season

	Tim Duncan and the Spurs have a habit of surging after the All-Star break. John W. McDonough/SI

Also in this column:
• One key for running teams
• Best players in the Euroleague
• Notes from around the NBA

The halfway point of the NBA season is past and the All-Star break comes next week. It's time to ask the question: Which teams are well-positioned to fashion a compelling run down the stretch, and which are likely to stagger into the postseason?

Before bold predictions are made, a couple of disclaimers are in order. In most team sports, one injury does not often devastate a team, but in the NBA it happens all the time (see Grizzlies, Gasol). If misfortune of that catastrophic magnitude befalls any team, it can move its vacation plans right on up to April 19, otherwise known as the first day of the offseason for teams that don't make the playoffs.

Also, keep in mind that the trade deadline is Feb. 22, more than two weeks away. Before that day, a couple of teams will make roster moves they hope will boost their standing, while other teams will dump salaries and do the same to their record. In this regard, nobody has a bigger decision to make than New Jersey. Which of those two categories will the Nets decide they belong in?

Waxing (from Old English, weaxan; to increase)

San Antonio Spurs: They have looked old, bored and just plain ordinary at times this season. But if there is one thing you can count on in the NBA, it's the Spurs after the All-Star break. Over the past five seasons, the Spurs' record after Feb. 1 is 135-44 (.754). Their overall record during those years is 297-113 (.724), which is also fantastic, but few teams step on the gas in the spring like San Antonio. The Spurs won't catch Dallas in the Southwest Division, but a typical Spurs' spring would be enough to keep them ahead of Utah, Houston and the Lakers for the third-best record (and this year, the third seed) in the West.

Miami Heat: Did you notice that Shaquille O'Neal had 20 points in 20 minutes against Milwaukee on Saturday night? That groan you heard is every team in the East, but especially Washington and Orlando, Miami's competition in the Southeast Division. When Dwyane Wade and Shaq are healthy, it's amazing how the modest abilities of the Heat's role players look like a fine complement to the main course, instead of an inadequate entrée. Miami currently has the eighth-best record in the East. Look for it to finish fifth, if not higher.

Houston Rockets: Tracy McGrady hasn't done it alone, but he, the venerable Mt. Mutombo and the rest of Jeff Van Gundy's band have managed to thrive (13-6) with Yao Ming out. Don't forget the type of season Yao was having before his leg injury (25.9 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 2.2 bpg). If Yao comes back anywhere close to his previous form, the Rockets will battle the Spurs, Jazz and Lakers for one of the two unclaimed home-court seeds left in the West.

Waning (from Old English, wanian; wanting, deficient)

Washington Wizards: The Wizards have been fabulous (22-10) since a 5-9 November, but the injury to Antawn Jamison (sprained knee, out 3-6 weeks) is a significant one. The Wizards are not a deep team, especially on offense, with the Big Three of Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Jamison accounting for 64 percent of the team's points. Since the highest-scoring sub is Antonio Daniels, who averages 7.2 points, Jamison's absence will heap even more scoring responsibility on Arenas and Butler. Jamison's underrated rebounding will be missed, too.

Cleveland Cavaliers: They say the first step is admitting you have a problem. Well, the Cavs took that step when Mike Brown removed Eric Snow, who is no longer any type of offensive threat, from the starting lineup and inserted rookie shooter Daniel Gibson at the point. Gibson will provide more scoring, but he isn't a playmaker, and that will be added to the endless list of LeBron James' duties unless general manager Danny Ferry can produce a point guard in a trade. Without any move, Cleveland is still a good team, just not good enough to be a serious threat to reach the NBA Finals this year.

Orlando Magic: It's hard to even remember the Magic's 14-5 start that had the league buzzing and had some talking about Orlando running away with the Southeast Division. Even before injuries knocked out Grant Hill (sprained knee) and major bench contributors Trevor Ariza (knee) and Keyon Dooling (thumb), the Magic had slumped as turnovers and terrible foul shooting unmasked this young team as more of a pretender than contender. With Miami rejuvenated and likely to bypass Orlando in the standings, it will take all the magic the Magic can summon just to make the playoffs.