With early-entry list official, draft starts to crystallize

	Freshman Chase Budinger was among the big-name college players who passed on becoming an early-entry draft candidate. John W. McDonough/SI

The NBA has released its list of early-entry candidates for the draft, and that means it's time to crunch some numbers.

First and most important is that over the past three drafts, almost exactly half (150 out of 298) of the players who originally applied for early entry withdrew their names before the draft. So before the gatekeepers of college basketball wring their hands, gnash their teeth and wail about the unfairness of it all, let's put in perspective what the numbers tell us.

The total number of players on this year's early-entry list is 84, the fewest since 2003. In both 2006 and 2004, 94 players requested early entry. In 2005, a record 110 candidates submitted their names. There are two main reasons for the shrinking numbers.

One, the collective bargaining agreement signed in July 2005 required that players be 19 years old and one year removed from the graduation of their high school class before becoming eligible for the draft. That requirement effectively ended the movement of players into the NBA directly from high school. In 2005, the final year high school seniors were eligible to enter the draft, 11 high school seniors were eligible to be picked and nine of those were drafted.

Two, the NBA and players' union agreed that international players would be allowed to withdraw from the draft only twice after becoming early-entry candidates. Since international players cannot apply for early entry until the calendar year of their 19th birthday, these two rule changes combined to cut by half the number of times an international player could withdraw.

With no high school players and the international count down to 25, the fewest since 2002, the total number of players applying has been reduced.

Many college stars stay in school

At first glance, the list of early-entry candidates has the usual number of obvious lottery picks and a handful of players who are very likely to be first-round picks. Then there are several college juniors who know in their hearts they are not going to stay in the draft, but would surely love to score an invitation to the NBA Pre-Draft Camp (slated for Orlando from May 29-June 4), where they can begin filling their audition tape for next season.

But before we analyze the early-entry list, let's take a minute to talk about who isn't on it. The absence of some marquee names means college basketball fans have plenty of reason to cheer.

Point guards Darren Collison (UCLA), Ty Lawson (North Carolina), D.J. Augustin (Texas) and Ronald Steele (Alabama) will play college basketball next season. So will super shooters Chris Lofton (Tennessee) and Drew Neitzel (Michigan State); electric wing players Chase Budinger (Arizona), Malik Hairston (Oregon) and Richard Roby (Colorado); and post monsters Tyler Hansbrough (North Carolina), D.J. White (Indiana) and Hasheem Thabeet (Connecticut).

Put those together with the dozen or so standout players who will withdraw from the early-entry list before the draft, add a few superb freshmen and you have a ready-made list of spectacular talents who will keep the college game compelling next season.