 | Greg Oden will pay immediate dividends in the NBA with his ability to protect the basket. AP |
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The Declaration of Independence states "that all men are created equal." That phrase may be the defining idea that best describes democracy.
It's a wonderful sentiment, but it certainly doesn't extend to the basketball court. I know this because I have seen Shaquille O'Neal. Up close. Nobody is equal to that man.
And that provides a nifty segue to the reason why big men always seem to populate the upper regions of the NBA Draft. There are thousands of pretty good guards, and the supply of reasonably talented athletic small forwards seems to grow every year. But try finding a big guy good enough to stop O'Neal, or Tim Duncan. There is a reason those guys have four rings apiece.
Thus, barring something miraculous happening Thursday night, 7-footer Greg Oden of Ohio State will be the first pick in the draft, followed by 6-10 Kevin Durant of Texas and other large men like 6-10 Al Horford and 7-foot Joakim Noah, both of Florida.
The only man of modest stature drafted first overall in the last quarter century was 6-foot Allen Iverson of Georgetown in 1996. Most of the time, big men make up most of the first five picks, and this year is unlikely to be much different, unless Oden's college teammate, 6-1 point guard Mike Conley, manages to crash the party.
1. Greg Oden, 7-0, 257 pounds, Fr., Ohio State
Oden has a humble demeanor and a very engaging personality that make him a marketer's dream, someone who might be able to disprove Wilt Chamberlain's oft-repeated refrain that "Nobody loves Goliath." But the team drafting Oden will be looking for another side to his personality -- the fearsome, shot-blocking intimidator he revealed himself to be at times during the NCAA tournament (when he wasn't being called for touch fouls by college officials). It's a given that Oden's offensive game will improve over time, but it's his athletic presence in the paint at both ends of the court that makes him a centerpiece of a future NBA championship team.
2. Kevin Durant, 6-10, 215, Fr., Texas
In just about any other season, a player with Durant's scoring ability would be an easy choice as the first overall pick. Despite his youth, there is no question in any scout's mind that Durant will eventually be a big-time scorer and player in the NBA. He seems comfortable shooting the ball from anywhere on the floor and seems to be able to choose which shot he wants to take. But Durant's rebounding is being severely undersold: He averaged 11 rebounds per game in college. While he won't approach that in the NBA, his ability to read where rebounds are going and his condor-like wingspan should enable him to be a factor, especially as an offensive rebounder.
3. Al Horford, 6-10, 246, Jr., Florida
There's so much to like about Horford, it's hard to know where to start, but consider this: He averaged only eight shots per game in college, translating that into 13.2 points. A 61 percent field goal shooter his final two seasons, Horford could have demanded a larger role in the offense, putting Billy Donovan in a tough spot. But Horford put the team before himself, gave an all-out effort every night as a defender and on the boards, and picked up two rings. What team wouldn't want this guy?