Stern can only hope no other NBAers are in on scandal

NBA Referee Betting Scandal Donaghy pleads guilty | Four games pinpointed BURNS: Guilty plea doesn't end NBA's headache WERTHEIM: How Donaghy's plea affects the NBA THOMSEN: NBA must find way to live with betting ASCHBURNER: Stern's legacy suddenly on the line THOMSEN: Other referees have cause for concern McCALLUM: Commissioner shows a different side BURNS: Fans will inevitably doubt Stern's NBA DEFORD: Betting probe like this one was inevitable MANNIX: An isolated case? Stern better hope so McCALLUM: The NBA missed some warning signs BURNS: Ex-Donaghy colleague expresses anger GALLERY: Infamous gambling scandals in sports SI FLASHBACK: Referees caught for tax evasion

NEW YORK -- The NBA has steered clear of major scandal for the better part of David Stern's 23-year tenure as commissioner. On a warm summer morning here Tuesday, however, Stern faced the cold reality that his league is in crisis.

Sure, conspiracy theories have been rampant over the years, but they've often been treated humorously. We laughed when, after being eliminated in the 2000 playoffs by the New York Knicks, Heat guard Tim Hardaway referred to referee Dick Bavetta as "Knick Bavetta." And we shrugged our shoulders in 2002 when the Sacramento Kings collectively declared that the Lakers' path to the Finals was paved in pinstripes.

But now the NBA faces a unique scandal; the league has been compromised. While players and coaches swear up and down that the developments this past week will do nothing to alter their opinions of officials, the fact is we may have not seen the last ball drop.

As he stood in front of the assembled media Tuesday, with no NBA backdrop behind him and looking like he would rather be shoving a fork through his eyeball than answering questions, Stern was hardly unequivocal in his statements. He used phrases like "on the basis of my current understanding" when asked if former referee Tim Donaghy's alleged criminal activity was an isolated incident. He stopped short of declaring that outside of Donaghy's betrayal, the referees he has long held so near and dear to his heart were clean. He was classic David Stern: absolutely certain -- as long as he can leave enough wiggle room to get out of it if he is wrong.

The concept of point shaving is certainly one the NBA has considered. A line on the first page of an eight-page pamphlet the NBA distributed to its referees before the season reads, "Any perception by our fans that NBA games are 'fixed' would be extraordinarily injurious to our sport." Certainly that would qualify as the mother of all understatements.

But while it is widely believed (including by this reporter) that the betrayal of the league was perpetrated by, in Stern's words, a "rogue, isolated criminal," that could just be wishful thinking. What if Donaghy is just the tip of the iceberg? Here are a few scenarios to consider.

Scenario A: Donaghy acted alone

At this point, this is the best-case scenario for the NBA. Regardless of security measures, people like Donaghy, for lack of a better phrase, happen. You can't control what is in one man's mind. As Stern said Tuesday, "Doing the best you can doesn't always mean that criminal activity by a determined person can be prevented.''

The NBA goes to extraordinary lengths to ensure the integrity of the league, and the alleged criminal acts of one bad seed shouldn't be enough to tear it down. We live in a forgive-and-forget society, and if the NBA is forthright with its plans to increase security measures, however marginally, the fractured public trust will begin to heal itself.

Scenario B: Donaghy dishes the dirt on other referees

There is a genuine concern among referees that Donaghy is the type of person who would slander other officials if it meant shifting the attention -- and the blame -- away from himself. That may not be limited to accusations of point shaving. Donaghy was an NBA referee for 13 years before resigning in July. He spent countless hours dissecting game film with his colleagues. We know from the IRS scandal in the 1990s that referees, like the majority of human beings, can be compromised. Suppose Donaghy tells authorities that Official X has a high-stakes poker game in his basement? Or Official Y keeps a mistress on the road?

Accusations like that are nowhere near as damaging to the league as those of point shaving. If made public, though, they would make NBA officials a punch line for decades and would force Stern to rethink his belief that his referees are the "best in the world."

Scenario C: Donaghy colluded with a player

This scenario is ground zero. Imagine the horror if it was revealed that a referee and a player acted in concert to fix the outcome of a game. If that scenario comes to fruition, the public trust would disappear, turning the NBA into a glorified version of the WWE.

For the sake of the NBA, lets hope the worst of this storm is behind us.