The deciding factors in  conference title matchups

New Orleans at Chicago, Sun., 3 p.m. ET

	Bears running back Thomas Jones ran for two touchdowns in Chicago's 27-24 overtime win over the Seahawks last week. Al Tielemans/SI
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• Numbers to know: You can't forget the Rex Grossman watch, but don't fixate on it to the point where you look past the Thomas Jones factor. The Bears are 14-1 in the past 15 games in which Jones carries at least 20 times. Last week against Seattle, Jones ran for two touchdowns, becoming the first Bears rusher to do that in a playoff game since Walter Payton in 1979. Look for the Bears to feed the ball to Jones and Cedric Benson, limiting the impact the erratic Grossman can have on the game.

• The angle to pay attention to: It's hard to square Chicago's dominating defensive reputation with reality of late. Without injured defensive tackle Tommie Harris and safety Mike Brown, the Bears just aren't intimidating opponents any more. Seattle moved the ball crisply against the Bears for most of the game last week, and the Saints' No. 1-ranked offense and passing game shouldn't find the going too tough either. In its first 12 games this season, Chicago held nine opponents to 17 points or fewer. In their past five games, the Bears have given up 27, 31, 21, 26 and 24 points.

• The tidbit: Did you know that Saints rookie head coach Sean Payton actually quarterbacked the Bears for three games as a replacement player during the 1987 players' strike? His last NFL pass was an interception during a 19-17 loss to -- drumroll, please -- the Saints.

• The coaching front: After starting his Bears coaching career by losing 14 of his first 20 games, Lovie Smith has rebounded with 24 victories in 30 games, including playoffs, making him 30-20 at the 50-game mark. A win against the Saints and he'll become just the second Bears coach to make the Super Bowl, joining Mike Ditka, whose 1985 club won it all. The Saints' Sean Payton won NFL coach of the year honors in his rookie season, increasing New Orleans' win total by eight (so far) after 2005's 3-13 last-place finish.

• The buzz: Unless he's hurt or suffers a disastrous first half, Grossman won't give way to backup Brian Griese at this point. Smith seems determined to stick with his inconsistent quarterback come what may, and you have to at least give him credit for loyalty. Grossman needs a strong start to get the Bears apprehensive crowd behind him, and to smooth out his jumpy nerves. He's the type of quarterback who seems to keep both teams in the game at all times, but one strong performance against the Saints and all of Chicago will be at his feet.

• The next household name: Brian Urlacher seems to get most of the credit for everything that goes right for Chicago's defense, but Bears outside linebacker Lance Briggs saved the game last week against Seattle with that textbook, fourth-quarter backfield tackle of Shaun Alexander on 4th and 1 in Bears territory. Briggs is eligible for free agency and will make millions if he reaches the market. The Bears have never used their franchise tag during GM Jerry Angelo's tenure (2001-on), and the word is they don't want to tie up too much of their cap room on one position (linebackers).

• The X Factor: If it's close, I like Robbie Gould's chances of making the difference in this one. The Bears second-year kicker is a cool customer, and his 41-yard field goal into the wind late in regulation last week against Seattle was the epitome of clutch. By comparison, his game-winning 49-yarder in overtime (with the wind at his back) was child's play. Gould, the former construction worker, said he has gone from driving nails to nailing game-winners in recent years, and we just like the way that sounds.

• Most memorable encounter: Before last week's win against Seattle, the Bears hadn't won a playoff game at home since beating the Saints 16-6 in 1990's first round. That game was the sixth and final postseason victory in Ditka's coaching tenure in Chicago, and dropped New Orleans to 0-2 in its painfully brief playoff history. For all the money in the world you probably couldn't guess the three forgettable quarterbacks who played in that game: Steve Walsh and John Fourcade split time for the Saints, while Mike Tomczak got the win for the Bears, who were eliminated 31-3 by the Giants the next week on the road.

• The Pick: Putting my 8-0 playoff record firmly in the capable hands of Brees and the rest of the storybook Saints. Some things are just meant to be. Saints 20, Bears 13

Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com.