It's still way early, but playing the role of Aaron Rodgers in this year's draft could be none other than Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn, whose volatility factor is starting to remind me a little of the sliding Cal quarterback of two years ago.
Rodgers was considered the likely No. 1 overall pick for most of the 2005 pre-draft buildup, but tumbled to No. 24 Green Bay -- where he's still waiting for his turn under center behind a certain veteran who continues to stave off retirement.
While we're not forecasting quite such a precipitous drop for Quinn, he's shaping up as the wild card in the first round's top half, where he could still go anywhere from first overall (Oakland) to 14th, where Carolina resides. I have a hard time buying that teams such as No. 2 Detroit, No. 3 Cleveland, No. 7 Minnesota and No. 8 Houston should pass on Quinn, but if they do, look for No. 9 Miami to catch the falling star and put him in their pocket next season.
Here's our second attempt at mocking out the first round, even before the Scouting Combine and free agency have begun to solidify teams' opinions and shape their need lists:
| Mock NFL Draft No. 2 |
| Pick |
Team |
Pos. |
Player |
College |
Class |
Ht. |
Wt. |
| 1 |
 |
QB |
JaMarcus Russell |
LSU |
Jr. |
6-6 |
260 |
|
With 10 weeks to go until draft weekend, the Raiders still have time to talk themselves out of Russell and into Quinn. Russell has great size and a big arm, but wouldn't trading for the comparably-skilled Byron Leftwich be a heck of a lot cheaper?
|
| 2 |
 |
OT |
Joe Thomas |
Wisconsin |
Sr. |
6-8 |
315 |
I'm getting the feeling that the prevailing attitude in Detroit is better safe than sorry, which means no more first-round attention to the skill positions for a while. Like D'Brickashaw Ferguson was last year, Thomas is a fairly unassailable selection.
|
| 3 |
 # |
RB |
Adrian Peterson |
Oklahoma |
Jr. |
6-2 |
220 |
|
Not being sold on Charlie Frye, I want to give the Browns Quinn in this slot. But when you realize that both Cleveland coach Romeo Crennel and GM Phil Savage are likely fighting for their jobs in 2007, pinning their hopes on a rookie QB is probably not the way to go.
(# -- Coin flip at NFL combine between Browns and Bucs for No. 3 pick)
|
| 4 |
 # |
WR |
Calvin Johnson |
Georgia Tech |
Jr. |
6-5 |
235 |
If there's an early mock out there that doesn't have the Bucs landing Johnson with either the third or fourth pick, I haven't seen it. There would be no delay in turning in the card for Johnson, the draft's can't-miss offensive talent.
(# -- Coin flip at NFL combine between Browns and Bucs for No. 3 pick)
|
| 5 |
 |
DE |
Gaines Adams |
Clemson |
Sr. |
6-5 |
260 |
|
The Cardinals should have their choice of defensive stars: Adams, Arkansas end Jamaal Anderson or Michigan tackle Alan Branch. Arizona could also entertain trade offers from teams interested in Quinn and wanting to move ahead of No. 7 Minnesota and No. 8 Houston.
|
| 6 |
 |
DE |
Jamaal Anderson |
Arkansas |
Jr. |
6-6 |
280 |
|
Gregg Williams' defense hardly breathed on opposing quarterbacks in 2006, so Anderson's edge rushing skills should look pretty appealing to the Redskins. Adams would be another solid selection if he slips past the Cardinals.
|
| 7 |
 |
WR |
Ted Ginn, Jr. |
Ohio State |
Jr. |
6-0 |
180 |
|
Minny's anemic offense needs playmakers at receiver, and Ginn's speed is enticing for the vertically challenged Vikings. But you can't rule out Quinn being too enticing to pass up either.
|
| 8 |
 |
DT |
Alan Branch |
Michigan |
Jr. |
6-6 |
330 |
|
Can the Texans for a second consecutive year bypass a popular skill-position player (Quinn in this case, Reggie Bush or Vince Young last year) to select a defensive lineman? Yeah, I think they can. Especially if Jake Plummer is headed to Houston like we think.
|
| 9 |
 |
QB |
Brady Quinn |
Notre Dame |
Sr. |
6-4 |
228 |
|
New Dolphins head coach Cam Cameron has the time and the leverage to take a franchise QB in his first season on the job, and Quinn gives Miami the insurance policy it needs should Daunte Culpepper never return to his Pro Bowl form of 2004.
|
| 10 |
 |
WR |
Dwayne Jarrett |
USC |
Jr. |
6-5 |
210 |
|
We know this might be a bit high for Jarrett, but as even Falcons owner Arthur Blank has noted, Atlanta doesn't have any receivers who can catch the ball. If you're giving Michael Vick one last shot, at least find him a go-to guy other than Alge Crumpler.
|
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