Prior success little help in predicting '07 playoff field

Fueled by the 11 touchdowns Drew Brees has thrown over the past four games, the Saints haven't lost in a month. Kevin Reece/Icon SMI

As we stare down the second half of the NFL's regular season, this much seems apparent from my vantage point: In most cases, a 2006 playoff trip portends little in the way of a repeat performance this year.

This season's 12-team playoff field still has eight weeks to fully take shape, but if the postseason were to open based on the current standings, among the interesting nuggets would be the following:

• Eight of the 12 teams that made the playoffs last year are playing no better than .500 ball at the 2007 midseason. That's San Diego, Baltimore, Kansas City (all 4-4) and the Jets (1-8) in the AFC, and Seattle, New Orleans (both 4-4), Chicago and Philadelphia (both 3-5) in the NFC.

Granted, the NFL playoff field turns over at about a 50 percent clip every year. In the past five seasons (2002-2006), 27 different teams have made the postseason, with only the Texans, Dolphins, Bills missing the cut in the AFC, and the Lions and Cardinals in the NFC. But this season, fully two-thirds of the playoff incumbents appear in jeopardy of missing out on a return invite to the dance. The last time the postseason featured eight new teams was 2003.

• An astounding six of the eight teams that won at least 10 games last year have slumped to .500 or below halfway through this season. Even more surprising, four of those six teams that dominated in '06 have already lost more games in the first half of this year than they did all of last year: San Diego (from 14-2 to 4-4), Chicago (13-3 to 3-5), Baltimore (13-3 to 4-4) and the Jets (10-6 to 1-8). And the Saints (10-6 to 4-4) and Eagles (10-6 to 3-5) are fast closing in on exceeding their '06 loss total. The list includes the AFC's No. 1-2 seeds of last year (Chargers and Ravens), and the NFC's top-seeded Bears.

• The only two exceptions to the what-goes-up-must-come-down rule will not shock you. New England (12-4 to 9-0) and Indianapolis (12-4 to 7-1) have maintained their level of excellence, proving once again that it's a Pats-Colts world and the other 30 NFL teams are just living in it. In the NFC, the only two '06 playoff qualifiers who seem well-positioned to return to the Super Bowl tournament are Dallas (7-1) and the Giants (6-2), who happen to square off this weekend in the Meadowlands with first place in the NFC East on the line.

So what do Weeks 10-17 in the NFL hold? Knowing now what we didn't know in early September, here's how we see the 12-team playoff field coming together, division by division:

NFC East: Dallas -- Despite a secondary that remains their glaring weakness, the Cowboys have more pieces of the puzzle figured out than any other NFC contender. But Dallas is far from home free in the East, with four division games remaining, in addition to showdowns with the NFC North's top two teams: Green Bay and Detroit. All told, six of the Cowboys last eight opponents are currently at .500 or better.

A win this week at the Giants would give the Cowboys what amounts to a three-game lead over New York with seven to play, and that would be a sizable cushion entering mid-November. But Dallas still has to play arch-rival Washington twice, and the Redskins could make it a three-team race in the East.

NFC North: Green Bay -- Dissect the Packers' second-half schedule and at worst I have them finishing 12-4 to win their first division title since 2004. They have Minnesota and Carolina at home the next two weeks, and given the quarterback problems that have plagued the Vikings and Panthers, Green Bay should be 9-1 when it embarks upon its tough, two-game, late-November road trip to Detroit and Dallas.

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