Importance of stats underlines folly of QB ratings

Chad Pennington's 88.6 passer rating may be respectable but it obscures his seven interceptions and the Jets' 1-6 start. AP

MAILBAG Dr. Z will answer select user questions each week in his NFL mailbag. Your name: Your e-mail address: Your home town: Enter your question:

A swelling bag of mail, filled with passer ranking responses. No wasted time. Get right to them.

Kelly of Belmond, Iowa, who is actually in my corner because he wrote some nice things, thinks I'm nuts to carry on so against a passer rating system that, after all, is merely a statistic. It's the same as all the others are, and doesn't represent a measure of one's ability. Sorry, but it represents a lot more than that to many people, including the ones who write the contracts, so why not try to get it right? Second part -- am I acquainted with the writer, Kurt Vonnegut? Yes. "You remind me of him sometimes," Kelly says. Just once I'd like to collect what his worst selling book netted.

Lance of Norcross, Ga., wonders how often I'd want Elias to update their statistics, assuming someone agreed with me that they needed updating. Not sure. Maybe every 10 years or so. But some, as I pointed out, have to be changed completely, such as QB kneels included in the rushing stats. Part 2 -- How do I chart QB's? Not statistically. First of all, how do they act when the stakes are highest? In other words, what are they like during a two-minute drill? Then, how good is their third-down conversion rate, and I give them a conversion if the play has carried past the first-down line and the guy fumbles the ball. Finally, how many bad passes? A bad pass can even be completed, but it's bad if the receiver has to make a circus catch when he doesn't have to, or if it puts him in a bad spot and leaves him vulnerable to a kill shot. And as far as your thanking the Redhead for sharing me with you, she has this message: "I want to know what time the bus is coming to pick him up and take him to your house for dinner. And I'll send the laundry, too."

Al of Milwaukee has lots of nice things to say, and after I've been well set up he lets me have the cobblestone right hand. How can I knock the "safety first" quarterbacks and still take shots at Brett Favre for being reckless? OK, you got me. Human beings, as you know, are a mass of contradictions. "Oh, for God's sakes," The Flaming Redhead says. OK, OK, already. Can't you take a joke? There's a difference between seldom taking a chance, taking a chance with a decent shot at success and throwing some of the downright loony interceptions Favre throws.

Chip of Hasbrouck Heights, N.J., says, "Don't blame the CPAs for this. We get blamed for Enron, MCI, etc. Try the actuaries. They are the mathematics people." Fine. I'll blame the actuarial mentalities that run the Elias Bureau. They sure aren't football people.

Paul of Olympia, Wash., thinks my criticism is ridiculous. "The QB system is the most accurate, fair and comprehensive player statistic in the four major sports." Makes no difference that the standards used are outdated. They're still comparing modern passers with each other. I didn't get into the whole matter deeply enough because I didn't want to turn everyone off, but the system is flawed in one major regard. Please try to follow this because I'm being deadly serious.

Too much emphasis is placed on one factor, completion percentage. It affects all four categories. Down the field throwers are not rewarded enough. Every aspect -- completion percentage itself, interceptions, yards and TDs all reflect percentages of passes attempted. OK, I'll give them two of them -- completion percentage and interceptions, but the way to balance it would be to relate two categories to COMPLETIONS, not attempts. In other words, look at how many TDs a guy has, relative to how many passes he completes. That would eliminate pumped up rewards for lots of completed dinks. The same with yards. Give the guy who averages 13 yards a completion a higher grade than one who hits the league average of 11.3. Are you still with me, or are you just going to throw your hands up, as the Elias people do, and say, "The guy's nuts. Stay away from him?" Actually Elias' Lord Hirdt and I have a nodding acquaintance. He says nodding to me, I say nodding to him.

The maximum number of 158.3 rating points has been greeted with derision by Brandon of Vegas, Simon of Reynosa, Mexico, John of Warsaw, Ind., and Kate L. of Charlotte, N.C.. Why not put it in terms everyone understands, such as 100 being perfect? Where'd that 158.3 ever come from anyway? From actuarial tables. Voting records. Crop reports. Crimean War casualty figures. Who the hell knows where bean counters get their numbers from?

"Where do we organize the angry mob and get it changed?" John Warsaw asks. We're mobilizing right now. At the present time the quartermaster is trying to get the entire angry mob fitted with uniforms. Tiny, the 400-pounder sitting over there, is creating problems.

And thanks to you, Simon, for your kind words about my writing.

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