NBA's 'spies' make detailed predictions for the season

Several scouts aren't convinced that Chris Bosh and the Raptors can duplicate last season's success. Manny Millan/SI

MAILBAG Ian Thomsen will periodically answer questions from SI.com users in his mailbag. Your name: Your e-mail address: Your home town: Enter your question:

Advance scouts are the spies of the NBA: Every franchise employs one or more of them to travel the league and study opponents for weaknesses. Each year I interview a number of them -- anonymously and exhaustively -- to assess every team for Sports Illustrated's preview.

But this year I sought additional help: I asked 11 scouts for detailed predictions of the upcoming season. I wanted to know how they rank each conference from top to bottom during the regular season, as well as their projections for the conference finals and NBA Finals. They turn out to be a highly discriminating group: By their count, only three teams are capable of winning the championship next June.

Let's start with their regular-season rankings. Each scout was asked to grade the teams in each conferences from Nos. 1 to 15, regardless of divisional seeding for the playoffs. Total scoring was simple: A No. 1 vote was worth 1 point, while a vote for No. 15 docked that team 15 points, etc.

Eastern Conference

T-1. Boston Celtics (25 cumulative points)
T-1. Detroit Pistons (25)
3. Chicago Bulls (32)
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (41)
5. Miami Heat (63)
6. New Jersey Nets (72)
7. Washington Wizards (78)
8. Toronto Raptors (80)
9. Orlando (86)
10. New York Knicks (112)
11. Milwaukee Bucks (122)
12. Atlanta Hawks (140)
T-13. Indiana Pacers (144)
T-13. Philadelphia 76ers (144)
15. Charlotte Bobcats (156)

The scouts divide the East into several tiers beginning with the elite of Boston, Detroit, Chicago and Cleveland. The next big divide separates No. 9 Orlando from No. 10 New York -- though the Knicks create the biggest argument in the conference, with one scout ranking them as high as No. 4 and others as low as No. 12. The bottom five teams receive no playoff votes from the scouts.

The Celtics are the only team awarded home-court advantage in the first round by every scout. But as you'll see below, the Celtics aren't expected to maintain that dominance throughout the postseason.

If these rankings come true, then Miami will be upgraded to a No. 4 seed as champion of the Southeast Division, thus dropping Cleveland to No. 5. Last season the Cavaliers finished No. 2 in the East on their way to the NBA Finals. But nine scouts predict the Cavs will decline -- to as far as No. 6, according to two of them -- after their failure to improve the roster or re-sign Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic yet.

Even more obvious is skepticism of the Raptors, the reigning Atlantic champs who are expected to drop five spots to No. 8 despite anticipated improvement from Andrea Bargnani and the acquisition of another three-point shooter in Jason Kapono. And while the Bobcats appeared to upgrade their roster, they're picked to drop four places since last year based on uncertainty over rookie coach Sam Vincent.

Western Conference

1. Dallas Mavericks (19)
2. San Antonio Spurs (22)
3. Phoenix Suns (25)
T-4. Utah Jazz (53)
T-4. Houston Rockets (53)
6. Denver Nuggets (66)
7. Golden State Warriors (84)
8. Los Angeles Lakers (87)
9. New Orleans Hornets (99)
10. Los Angeles Clippers (115)
11. Memphis Grizzlies (121)
12. Portland Trail Blazers (129)
13. Sacramento Kings (136)
14. Minnesota Timberwolves (155)
15. Seattle Super Sonics (156)

The scouts are unanimous that Dallas, San Antonio and Phoenix will be the top three teams in the West, though the Suns receive no votes for No. 1. Then there's a big drop to the next grouping of Houston, Utah and Denver. (Note that the Jazz would be granted the No. 4 seed in the playoffs as champions of the Northwest.) The bottom four teams receive no playoff votes from the scouts.

These standings represent little change from last season: None of the playoff teams made a big offseason change, and Memphis -- worst in the league a year ago -- looks like the only Western roster to undergo a major upgrade in talent.

1 of 2