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Playoff dreaming (cont.)Posted: Thursday February 8, 2007 11:44AM; Updated: Tuesday April 24, 2007 6:16PM
The West is the big question. The Mavericks and the Suns are clearly the two best teams in the league, and they meet twice more, on March 14 in Dallas and April 1 in Phoenix. Injuries could decide the outcome -- the Suns' Steve Nash is battling an aching right shoulder at the moment -- but the Mavs, who have a somewhat easier schedule than the Suns in April, have already beaten Phoenix twice. Best guess: Detroit keeps its edge in the East. And in the West, the Mavs, a game better than the Suns right now, hold on to the top spot. That puts the Mavs and Suns on a collision course for a repeat of last season's Western final, won by Dallas in six games. 4. Which two teams emerge from the mad scramble for the final spots in the West field? There are six mortal playoff locks (Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, Houston and the Lakers), which leaves the Clippers, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Hornets and Warriors fighting for the scraps. To varying degrees, all have underachieved, and the only way to salvage something out of this season is to make the playoffs. Best guess: Forget Golden State, which is hanging on in the Pacific Division -- the Warriors will have a hard time holding off Sacramento to finish out of the basement. Of all these teams, I really like the Hornets, who won at Denver on Wednesday night, but injuries have hurt their chances and, with a 22-27 record, they are pedaling uphill. The Clippers' fate may hinge on whether they can get value for Corey Maggette before the trading deadline, but I think they'll hang on in any case. So who's the other pick? The Nuggets (who, in case you haven't noticed, haven't exactly torn up the league since the pairing of Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony) and T'wolves play each other twice more, one of them being the penultimate game of the season on April 16 in Denver. Logic says to go with the Nuggets, but something tells me that Kevin Garnett will play well enough down the stretch to push Minnesota to that final spot. 5. Will Tracy McGrady finally get to start a playoff series at home? The reigning Best Player Never to Make It Out of the First Round has begun playoff series with three different teams (Toronto, Orlando and Houston) on the road, which has something to do with his personal 8-17 postseason record. Considering how tough the top of the West is this season, T-Mac may well need a home court kick to change his résumé. Best guess: It will happen by a quirk. The Rockets won't catch Dallas or Phoenix or even the San Antonio Spurs, whom they trail by 1˝ games in the Southwest Division. With the automatic other top four seed going to Northwest winner Utah, the Rockets will be the fifth seed. But NBA rules (wisely) allow lower-seeded teams with better records to get home court advantage. And with Yao Ming's return, I think the Rockets will finish with more wins than Utah and start the postseason at the Toyota Center. Now, will T-Mac make it to the second round? That's a whole other prediction. Jack McCallum is the author of "Seven Seconds or Less: My Season on the Bench with the Runnin' and Gunnin' Phoenix Suns," a behind-the-scenes account of the Suns' 2005-06 season. Click here to order a copy. 2 of 2 | |||||||