Assessing the possibility of first-round playoff upsets

	Don Nelson (center) will lead his upstart Warriors into a first-round matchup with heavily favored Dallas, a team he coached for eight seasons. AP

In pondering the likelihood of playoff upsets, one must first ponder exactly what constitutes upset. A 5 seed beating a 4, for example, does not necessarily scream upset, particularly since home court skews the whole thing. Division winner Miami is a 4 yet begins its quest for a second straight title on the road, at No. 5 Chicago, so who is, in fact, the underdog?

Most would consider Chicago's winning an upset -- as would I -- but only because of Miami's championship pedigree. At any rate, it wouldn't be much of an upset. So I'm taking that series out of play.

Since all of SI.com's pundits were called upon to embarrass themselves in print, before the first postseason ball is tossed on Saturday, you can glance elsewhere to see that I have gone chalk throughout the playoffs. I didn't pick an upset (at least not a big one) even if that would've made my picks more interesting. But I'm not here to be interesting. I'm here to be embarrassed in print when my picks are wrong.

The oddsmaker Bodog.com, incidentally, has installed the Dallas Mavericks as 7-5 favorites to win the NBA title. We assume this is at least as harrowing to the Mavs as the SI jinx, but I, too, think the Mavs will win it all, so Dallas is at least twice-cursed. Bringing up the rear in the Bodog analysis are the Washington Wizards, who are a 150-1 shot to win it all, which, considering their injury problems, seems optimistic.

At any rate, here is the likelihood, as I see it, of first-round upsets, taking Miami-Chicago out of it and moving from MOST likely to LEAST likely.

No. 6 New Jersey over No. 3 Toronto

If Vince Carter can get the booing out of his ears when he walks into his old gym Saturday, he, Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson have the talent and the experience to end this dream Raptors season.

No. 5 Utah over No. 4 Houston

I know, I know, this isn't much of an upset, considering the Jazz were a better team much of the season. But one of the storylines in the final weeks of the season was Utah's near-collapse and the Rockets' holding it together. Almost everyone I've talked to has penciled in the Rockets in this one (as have I) and further believe they can beat Dallas in the second round.

No. 8 Golden State over No. 1 Dallas

This would be the upset of upsets, of course, an 8 over a 1, Alcorn State over Duke. I don't think it will happen, but I've had at least two coaches I respect swear to me that a Warriors upset is in fact quite possible. "Sure, they finished eighth," one told me, "but they've been one of the best teams in the league over the last month. And playing Nellie [coach Don Nelson] when he believes he can beat you is a scary proposition."

No. 6 Denver over No. 3 San Antonio

Most everyone thought that the Nuggets' harrowing late-season schedule would push them to eighth and possibly right out of the playoffs. But they hung in there, and Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson have the capability to average 60 a game between them.

No. 7 L.A. Lakers over No. 2 Phoenix

The purple-and-gold almost beat the heavily favored Suns last year in the first round, building a 3-1 lead before losing three in a row. But this season? The Suns appear to be rolling, and the Lakers are back in that old dilemma of whether Kobe Bryant should shoot every time or pass once in a while. Still, he is Kobe, and he can get a big number on you.

No. 7 Washington over No. 2 Cleveland

Without Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, the Wizards would need the Cavs to totally self-destruct, LeBron James included. It's possible, but not at all likely.

No. 8 Orlando over No. 1 Detroit

This would be the clearest upset of the first round, a playoff upstart beating a team that has gone to the Finals twice in the last three seasons. Since Orlando limped into the playoffs, I just can't see it happening.

Jack McCallum is the author of "Seven Seconds or Less: My Season on the Bench with the Runnin' and Gunnin' Phoenix Suns," a behind-the-scenes account of the Suns' 2005-06 season. Click here to order a copy.