Cardinals will miss Weaver in 2007 -- and vice versa

	Jeff Weaver was the only Cardinals pitcher to win a game in each of the three postseason rounds last season. Frank Orris/WireImage.com
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For a franchise as maligned as the Mariners have been lately, Seattle has made at least two smart moves this winter:

1) Letting Gil Meche sign elsewhere for a king's ransom; and,

2) Agreeing to terms with Cardinals postseason hero Jeff Weaver on a digestible one-year, $8.325 million contract.

That doesn't make up for what has been a brutal offseason so far for Seattle, which made one of the more questionable trades of the winter (Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez) and picked up two aging sluggers (Jose Vidro and Jose Guillen) while failing to lock up Ichiro past 2007. For the Mariners, signing Weaver at least is a step in the right direction. What the deal means for St. Louis, Weaver's old team, is the complete opposite.

A couple of months ago, as Weaver was leading the Cardinals to a World Series-clinching victory against Detroit, it would have been hard to believe that so natural a fit as Weaver and St. Louis would part over such a pittance. (The Cardinals reportedly offered about $5 million with incentives.) The bliss of October fades into winter when cold, hard cash comes calling. Isn't that so often the case? (See: Rodriguez, Pudge, 2003.)

Weaver didn't exactly evoke memories of Bob Gibson while with the Cardinals. He struggled early, allowing 18 runs in his first four appearances, but won three of his four starts in September. In three postseason series, he made five starts and went 3-2, limiting opponents to eight earned runs in 29 2/3 innings. Compare those numbers to what he did with the Angels to start the year: 3-10, 6.29 ERA. He was so bad in Los Angeles that the club couldn't help but embarrass him by replacing him with his little brother, Jered.

The difference between Weaver in St. Louis compared to Weaver in Los Angeles is twofold: 1) He improved his focus from pitch to pitch and batter to batter. When innings began to unravel, he didn't pack it in mentally as he had made a habit of doing in years past; 2) He attacked the strike zone more aggressively, mixing his two- and four-seam fastballs with sliders and curveballs to make use of his full arsenal.

Both of those factors can be directly attributed to two people -- Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan and manager Tony La Russa -- who won't be around to help Weaver in Seattle.

Weaver's departure, coupled with the free-agent defection of Jeff Suppan to Milwaukee, leaves the Cardinals with one mainstay from their rotation last season: Chris Carpenter. Following the former Cy Young winner will be an unproven Anthony Reyes and Kip Wells, who is well on his way toward becoming a journeyman. Candidates for the other two spots include veteran Ryan Franklin and youngster Brad Thompson. If Jason Isringhausen can regain his closer role next season, that would allow Adam Wainwright to move to the rotation. Mark Mulder is due back in July from shoulder surgery. In any case, it won't be an imposing starting five, especially in an improved division. Yes, it will take more than 83 victories to win the NL Central in 2007.

The Mariners aren't likely to be printing playoff tickets this fall, either, even with the signing of Weaver. Back in the tougher American League and away from Duncan and La Russa, Weaver is likely to revert back to being an average-to-below-average innings eater. However, Seattle would welcome even an average performance from Weaver. Despite playing in cavernous Safeco Field, the Mariners allowed nearly 800 runs last season. Their 4.89 runs allowed per game ranked ninth out of the 14 AL teams. For the M's to contend in any given season, they need to rank near the top of the league in fewest runs allowed, not in the lower half.

The addition of Weaver should help with those numbers. Despite a reputation for being a sinkerball-groundball specialist, Weaver, in fact, has become a flyball pitcher in recent years, with the gopherball (he allowed 34 homers last season) being his glaring weakness. His groundball-to-flyball ratios have ranked in the lower half among all starting pitchers every year beginning with 2003. The spacious Safeco Field will play to that flyball tendency well.

Numbers aside, the big question surrounding Weaver in Seattle will be if he can maintain some of the intestinal fortitude he showed in St. Louis.