Tribe need Game 4 badly; three keys for Red Sox

Tim Wakefield takes the mound for the first time since Sept. 29 tonight in Game 4. AP

World Series Coverage   Monday John Donovan: Rox, Sox built to last Albert Chen: Ellsbury an unlikely hero Joe Sheehan: Scenes, notes from clincher Red Sox celebrate World Series victory Sunday Sox clip Rockies 4-3 to win World Series John Donovan's Report Card for Game 4 Jon Heyman's 15 Greatest Mr. Octobers Lowell takes home Series MVP honors Dynasty in the making for Red Sox? Clock strikes midnight for Rockies' ride Time.com: Red Sox are the new Yankees Saturday Red Sox down Rockies 10-5, take 3-0 lead John Donovan's Report Card for Game 3 Tom Verducci: The Sox are superior John Donovan: The Coors Field factor Jon Heyman: Four keys to Game 3 Friday Melissa Segura: Corpas gets his wish John Donovan: Rockies' lumber slumber Jon Heyman: How the Sox got Beckett Joe Sheehan: Electric night at Fenway Thursday Schilling, bullpen shut down Rockies 2-1 John Donovan's Report Card for Game 2 Tom Verducci's five cuts for Thursday Albert Chen on the Red Sox's bullpen John Donovan: Rockies turn to a rookie Joe Sheehan: Postseason drama lacking Tale of the Tape: Rockies vs. Red Sox World Series Fungoes Joe Lemire on Rockies-Red Sox Schedule/Box Scores Game 1: Red Sox 13, Rockies 1 Game 2: Red Sox 2, Rockies 1 Game 3: Red Sox 10, Rockies 5 Game 4: Red Sox 4, Rockies 3

Every postseason game is huge in its own way, but this one is bigger than most for the Cleveland Indians, who need tonight's Game 4 even more than the Red Sox do.

You would think it's the other way around since Boston is trailing 2-1 after having dropped its last two to the Tribe. But the Red Sox are the team with the best pitcher remaining in this postseason -- Josh Beckett -- and he is set to go on full rest in Game 5 against a slumping C.C. Sabathia. If the Indians lose Game 4, they are suddenly looking at heading back to Boston with a 3-2 series deficit. Historically speaking, that's a bad place to be (more on that below).

But if the Indians go up 3-1, not only will they be one game away from clinching the pennant but they would set themselves up for -- in the worst-case scenario -- another crack at the weary Daisuke Matsuzaka in Game 7, and that's only if they can't break through against Beckett in Game 5 or Curt Schilling in Game 6. They've already gotten the best of Schilling once this series, in Game 2.

According to Whowins.com, teams with a 3-2 lead after five games have a series record of 57-26 (.687). Teams that were up 3-2 and went on the road for Games 6 and 7 have won 29 of 45 times for a .644 winning percentage. Conversely, if the Red Sox should win the next two games, they would be headed home with a 3-2 lead, a scenario in which teams have a series record of 28-10 (.737).

Translation: If you don't have home-field advantage and want to win a best-of-seven, it's crucial to be up 3-2 after five games.

Since it's the Indians who have set the pace in this series thanks to two consecutive wins, let's set up tonight's game by looking at the three things the Red Sox need to do differently to get even:

1) The little guys have to come through.

It can't just be the Manny and Papi Show, or even the Manny, Papi and Mike Lowell Show. Those three have combined to go 12 for 30 (.400) with two homers, 12 RBIs, eight runs scored and 10 walks.

The rest of the lineup: 17 for 73 (.233), one HR, six RBIs, 10 runs, six walks.

As much as the Red Sox can mash at home, they aren't nearly as lethal on the road: During the regular season they tied for sixth in the AL in runs per game on the road with 4.88; at home they were second with 5.83.

What they could really use is a spark from the speed at the bottom of the order in the form of Julio Lugo and Coco Crisp. Between them they were 61 for 73 on stolen-base attempts this season but have only attempted one steal this ALCS.

2) A quick hook for Tim Wakefield.

Knuckleballers are fickle as it is, but Wakefield is even more of a mystery tonight because he hasn't pitched since Sept. 29 due to wear and tear on his shoulder. Manager Terry Francona can't wait around too long for Wakefield to find his knuckler. The Red Sox have already seen what the Indians bullpen can do when handed a lead, and they know it's no fun. Francona needs to have Jon Lester ready for long relief and not hesitate to use him.

Here's what the list of available relievers and how long they can go looks like for Boston once you eliminate the starters (Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka) and Eric Gagne:

Lester (3+ innings)
Javier Lopez (1 inning)
Mike Timlin (1 inning)
Manny Delcarmen (1+ innings)
Hideki Okajima (1+ innings)
Jonathan Papelbon (1+ innings)

There's plenty of arms there to get Boston through the game if Wakefield can't go more than a couple of innings. The key is to know when to bail on the knuckleballer.

3) Swing early in the count against Paul Byrd.

Byrd had 835 plate appearances against him this season. In 123 of those the first pitch was put into play, for a .297 batting average. (That sounds high but it's not out of the ordinary for any pitcher.) In 253 PAs, Byrd threw a ball on the first pitch. In the remaining 459 PAs, he threw strike one.

In other words, Byrd fell behind 1-0 in the count only 30 percent of the time. The other 70 percent of his pitches resulted either in strike one or a ball in play (which you can chalk up as a strike most of the time.) So Byrd will be around the plate all night, for better or worse. Waiting for a walk -- he gave out 25 unintentional free passes all year -- isn't as effective a strategy against Byrd as it would be against Fausto Carmona or even Sabathia, who has been wild in two playoff starts. Taking strike one certainly didn't help the Red Sox much against Jake Westbrook in Game 3.