Changing places

	Adam Dunn may be the prime target on the trade market this month. Don Lansu/WireImage.com
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The July 31 trade deadline is preceded by the requisite slew of rumors, so the actual trading of players, when it finally happens, often seems mild in comparison. Still, guys will switch teams before the deadline (and some even after it). Some of them might even be difference-makers. Rangers closer Eric Gagne may be the most likely to go. He's pitching well, he's a free agent after this season, the woeful Rangers don't need him and many other teams (such as the Red Sox) do. The dreadful White Sox still would like to lighten their roster of slugger Jermaine Dye and pitchers Javier Vazquez and Jose Contreras. The Reds want to unload the free-swinging Adam Dunn. Whoever stays or goes, the next two weeks are often the battiest in the game.

The Yankees

Their string of nine straight American League East titles is toast. The 12 straight postseason appearances? Well, I can't be completely sure, but I think I smell that burning, too. It's almost unfathomable to think that the Red Sox, who own a 10-game cushion on both the Yankees and Blue Jays, can choke away the division lead. The Sox simply have too much pitching, both starting and in relief, to blow it. And the Yankees' possibilities for landing the wild card look nearly as bad. They're down 8 1/2 games in that race and have a ton of good teams to pass -- Cleveland, Seattle, Minnesota and Oakland, not to mention current division leaders Detroit and the Angels. It's just too much to ask, even for a team that's second in the league in scoring (5.4 runs a game).

The Brewers

Milwaukee hasn't had a winning season since 1992, and the Brewers haven't made it to the postseason since 1982. The Crew will try to erase both halves of that sentence by holding off the Cubs -- and, maybe, the Cardinals if they decide to make a run -- in the National League Central race. It won't be easy. Since their 24-10 start the Brewers are just 20-29. They're 2-6 in July. Since that start of the Brewers', the Cubs are 28-25. The Brewers' lead, 8 1/2 games less than three weeks ago, is down to 4 1/2 . Did I say this wouldn't be easy?

The Hottest Race

The most compelling pennant race will be in the NL West, a division dominated by the best pitching anywhere. The Padres had three All-Star pitchers (Jake Peavy, Chris Young and closer Trevor Hoffman), the Dodgers two (Brad Penny and closer Takashi Saito). The teams are 1-2 in runs allowed (San Diego gives up 3.4 a game, L.A. 4.1), and their bullpens are 1-3 in ERA (2.38 for the Padres, 3.39 for the Dodgers, with the Red Sox in between). Neither team has a particularly punchy lineup, which makes for a lot of close games (the Padres have played 33 one-run games, the Dodgers 28) and potential bad blood. And this is not all about the Padres and Dodgers, you know. The Diamondbacks and Rockies are both .500 or better, and figure to have at least a say in who wins this division.

The stumblin' Mets

Was there a supposedly good team that was more distressingly disappointing in the first half than the Mets? Sure, they lead the NL East. But the Mets had a chance to absolutely bury everyone else in the division, as they did last year, and didn't do it. Couldn't do it. Since the beginning of June the Mets haven't just been stumbling; they've fallen down completely. They're a miserable 14-21 since June 1. They have a 4.76 ERA in that time. They're hitting just .253, with a terrible .304 on-base percentage over that too-telling stretch. Really, does anyone want this division?

The hardware

Who will be the AL's Most Valuable Player, Detroit's Magglio Ordonez (who's likely to be on a winning team) or A-Rod (hmmmmm)? How about in the NL? Maybe Bonds, or the Brewers' Prince Fielder, or maybe Philly's Chase Utley? Think about the Cy Young award. You have any problem with Oakland's Dan Haren in the AL and San Diego's Chris Young in the NL? Would you rather go with Boston's Josh Beckett or Cleveland's C.C. Sabathia in the AL, and maybe Young's teammate, Peavy, in the NL? Or maybe Penny of the Dodgers. Or Carlos Zambrano of the Cubs. You like Hunter Pence of the Astros or Tim Lincecum of the Giants for Rookie of the Year in the NL? Milwaukee's Braun is in the mix, too. Boston's Dustin Pedroia or the Angels' Reggie Willits or maybe K.C.'s Alex Gordon for AL rookie? Sure, it's too early to start engraving trophies. But the second half will tell.