Why A-Rod eventually could shatter home run record

Alex Rodriguez's consistency -- he has hit at least 35 homers in 10 straight seasons -- bodes well for his chances of eventually becoming the all-time home run king. Chuck Solomon/SI

Barry Bonds doesn't even own Major League Baseball's career home run record yet -- heck, at this pace, we're talking ... what, May of 2008 or so? -- and already we're wondering if Alex Rodriguez can snatch that baby away from him some day.

By we, of course, I mean everyone who would rather see A-Rod hold the record than Bonds. Which, just by the volume of e-mail I get, seems like a lot of people.

All that's a long way down the road, though, probably 10 years away or more. A-Rod's on the verge of becoming the 22nd player in history with 500 career homers -- he had crunched 499 of them before Friday's games -- so he has to hit, in effect, somewhere close to 300 more to get past the 756-plus that Bonds undoubtedly will have.

A-Rod turned 32 on Friday. Three hundred homers. Maybe 10 years or so to do it. That's a ton of home runs, and the downside of A-Rod's career to do it in. On the face of it, this far out, it seems pretty far-fetched.

Still, Bonds haters, and A-Rod lovers, can have some faith that this will happen some day. I'll give you three reasons why:

Rodriguez has a head start: He soon will be the youngest player ever to hit 500 home runs. When Bonds was A-Rod's age, in 1996, he had hit only 317 homers. A-Rod, then, has a 183-homer lead on the big fella. That's a good four seasons' worth.

He's an iron man, relatively speaking: To this point in his career, A-Rod has been very durable. He made it into only 129 games in Seattle in '99, but other than that year, he's played virtually whole seasons in every year since '96, when he came up full time as a 20-year-old shortstop for the Mariners. He's been on the disabled list only three times since '96 -- all brief stops -- and none since 2000. That bodes well, you'd think, for the latter part of his career. If he doesn't wear down, that is. And there's been no sign of that.

He's steadier: Whereas Bonds has put up huge numbers late in his career -- between 2000 and '04, the year he turned 39, he smashed 258 home runs, an average of more than 50 a year -- A-Rod has been steadier in the beginning stages of his career, as is evidenced by his early arrival at 500 homers. A-Rod is only the second player in history to hit at least 35 home runs in 10 straight years (with Sammy Sosa, who did it from 1995 to '04). And A-Rod is the first player in major league history, not that this relates directly to this argument, to hit 35 home runs and drive in 100 runs in 10 straight years. His 162-game average, according to Baseball-Reference.com, is 44 homers. Bonds' is 41.

Clearly, a lot can go wrong in the next decade or more for A-Rod. And it's probably unrealistic to project, even if little goes awry, that A-Rod will be able to put up the kinds of numbers that Bonds has put up in the last part of his career. (When he reaches 755, Bonds will have hit more homers past the age of 39 than anyone in history -- and that's with a season in which he hit just five in 2005.)

Still, analyst Bill James, in The 2007 Bill James Handbook, predicts 772 career homers for A-Rod, assuming he stays healthy. He has Bonds down for 884, again assuming good health. Bonds, because he's not healthy and because he'll have a hard time finding an employer in 2008, even if he wants to play, certainly won't reach James' projections. But will A-Rod?

Sure, he can do it. Just have some faith. And a little patience.

(And for all you on the Bonds watch this weekend, I have this, just for fun ...)

Time taken to hit last three homers to a milestone:

Hank Aaron, between 712 and 715 (1973-74) -- six games (of eight), 27 plate appearances.
Roger Maris, between 58 and 61 (1961) -- nine games (of 10), 40 PAs.
Mark McGwire, between 59 and 62 (1998) -- four games, 17 PAs.
Barry Bonds, between 69 and 71 (2001) -- five games, 26 PAs.
Barry Bonds, between 753 and 756 (2007) -- five games (of seven), 23 PAs ... and he still hasn't hit 754.

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