Expect A-Rod to parlay opt-out clause into extension

	Alex Rodriguez has four years remaining on his record-setting 10-year, $252 million contract, but he has a provision that allows him to declare for free agency after 2007. Jay Gula/WireImage.com
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Alex Rodriguez can easily enhance his quarter-billion dollar contract by exercising an opt-out clause that allows him to become a free agent after the 2007 season. So don't expect him to let the opportunity pass without doing a thing.

Expect him to leverage the clause to make even more money. But don't expect him to leave, either.

The man who's the most talented player in the game today has been accused of a lot of things during his surprisingly rocky (that's rocky with a small "r'') first three seasons in New York. But one thing Rodriguez has never been accused of is financial foolishness.

A lot of things can happen between now and the end of the season, when Rodriguez will have to make his big call. But it's hard to imagine him leaving an extra $75 million, or much more, on the table. So look for him to become the latest to take advantage of an opt-out clause, following this winter's big opt-out winners, J.D. Drew and Aramis Ramirez, who earned an extra $37 million and $53 million, respectively, by terminating the remainder of their contracts and hitting the open market.

Some might contend that A-Rod will owe the Yankees big time, especially should he and they experience yet another October failure together. But as Rodriguez's teammate Bernie Williams could tell you today, baseball is a cold-hearted business. We like to think it's all for fun and giggles, but if that were true, the Yankees would be giving the great Williams a guaranteed farewell contract and nice year-long sendoff rather than making him sweat it out as a non-guaranteed, non-roster invite.

Of course, there's one big difference between Rodriguez and Williams. Unlike A-Rod, Williams isn't in the prime of his career. He's been forced to decide between two options that wouldn't have been his first: 1) coming to camp and trying to beat out players who couldn't carry his jock on their best day, and 2) retiring a year or two before he wanted to.

A-Rod's choices will be considerably more palatable. He can remain a Yankee for the $72 million that's coming to him on his original record-shattering $252 million, 10-year deal. Or he can leverage his opt-out clause for even greater riches.

I say he takes door No. 2. But he does it while staying with the Yankees.

While the average annual salary of $24 million may be in line with his current market value, the likelihood is that he'd be able to negotiate a much bigger total package on the open market (with agent Scott Boras' help, of course). Consider that the Cubs signed Alfonso Soriano for $136 million as a free agent this winter, and consider that Soriano's ability and career don't come close to that of A-Rod, that Soriano certainly wasn't the headline in the A-Rod megatrade in the winter of 2004, and that for those A-Rod haters out there, Soriano was even worse for the Yankees in the postseason.

Rodriguez's "no comment" to the question about the opt-out clause at a book signing Tuesday in Manhattan, followed by Boras' remark to the Associated Press about how baseball's revenues are up to $6 billion from $3 billion when Rodriguez signed with Texas six years ago, provided the latest reminders as to what could happen. It's way early, yes, but my best guess as to what will happen is that Rodriguez will receive a fat extension from New York.

Maybe I'm naïve, but I do believe that Rodriguez means it when he says he loves playing in New York. He loves big-city life and fancies himself a cosmopolitan guy, and he does crave that big stage, even if he hasn't exactly devoured it yet.

Just as important here, I also believe the Yankees prefer to have him on their team.

While the endings to his three seasons haven't matched the Yankees' scripts, they know he helps guarantee that they play in October. Whatever anyone thinks about A-Rod's inability to steal that final month (not to mention, all Yankees fans' hearts), given a chance this winter when the A-Rod/Yankees marriage was at an all-time low, the Yankees showed absolutely zero interest in trading Rodriguez. The Angels were one of a few ready to make a run at Rodriguez. But the Yankees never even let the talks get past the introductory stage.

And while things haven't gone exactly as planned, let's not forget that New York was his first choice when Texas wooed him and overwhelmed him (of course at the time, it was the Mets, not the Yankees, who were the Apple of his eye). If Rodriguez had any interest in leaving, all he had to do was say so anytime this winter and give the go-ahead to a trade following what he acknowledges was the most difficult season of his life. That never happened.