Cubs need to come to an agreement with staff ace

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Also in this column:
• Carlos Guillen contract update
• Clemens' new math
• Grapefruit guide, part II
• More news and notes

The Cubs spent money like crazy this winter but suddenly and mysteriously have tightened up. After running up a $300 million-plus tab for all sorts of players, from big stars (Alfonso Soriano) to fringe stars (Ted Lilly) to former stars (Kerry Wood), from bargains (Lou Piniella) to non-bargains (Jason Marquis), and after pleasing players and agents throughout the game, they have picked a strange guy with whom to play hardball: ace pitcher Carlos Zambrano.

The Cubs and Zambrano have a date in a tense room with three arbitrators on Tuesday if they can't bridge the $4.475 million gap that exists between the sides, and while they may save themselves a million or two by going ahead with their case if they win it, the Cubs may be taking a major chance to upset their best and most reliable pitcher, a chance that could ultimately even cost them his services. One competing GM, citing the fact that the Cubs haven't taken a player into arbitration since noted nickel squeezer Larry Himes took Mark Grace into the room in 14 years ago, said he believed the sides would still reach an agreement, and one competing agent said he thought the Cubs might just be "trying to scare'' Zambrano by taking it this far.

But if the Cubs defy logic and head to the arbitration room, they may actually annoy or even upset a player they simply have to keep long-term. The pressure already is great to retain Zambrano, and will only intensify should Mark Prior not return to his prior form. It's also clear Zambrano wants to stay, and having a players' manager like Piniella probably does help their chances. But there's no sense blowing it with Zambrano now.

The Cubs are being foolish if they don't find common ground now. The Marlins weren't risking nearly as much when they took Miguel Cabrera to arbitration in that he's three years from free agency and there's no way they can afford to keep him long-term, anyway (as it turned out, Cabrera won for $7.4 million, so presumably he'll get over any cracks they might have made about his defense).

The Cubs have done a nice job of keeping their stars in recent years, with Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez the latest examples, and the strong belief is that Zambrano would prefer to stay, especially after GM Jim Hendry enhanced the team's lineup by signing Soriano and several others. However, an arbitration hearing would seem to be an unnecessary risk for their most reliable starter. Why not just split the difference and offer Zambrano $13 million (the Cubs submitted $11.025 to Zambrano's $15.5 million)?

The team may think it has a decent shot to win a hearing since the highest award ever for a winning player in arbitration was Andruw Jones' $8.2 million (Soriano got $10 million as a loser, and most big-time stars settle before reaching the room). Yet Zambrano, who's allowed to compare himself to free agents as a player with five-plus years of experience, could easily make the case that he's much better than the $11 million free agents (Gil Meche and Vicente Padilla) and compares favorably to the $15-18 million free agents (Barry Zito $18 million, Jason Schmidt $15.67 million).

The Cubs have a history on settling on a one-year deal, then working out a long-term extension with their best players, as they did with Lee. However, it appears the sides are even further apart on a multi-year deal than they are on the one-year deal. The Cubs see Roy Oswalt's $73 million, five-year deal as a fair comparable since Zambrano has a year to go before free agency, while Zambrano's sights have changed since Zito got his record-breaking $126-million deal. This won't be easy, so why make it harder on themselves?

More on the money men

• Brian Cashman is clearly running the Yankees with less sentiment and a greater eye on the payroll, and if he believes Mariano Rivera won't bolt to the Red Sox, he's probably right. While Rivera said every team would have a shot at him once he gets to free agency at year's end, Rivera, as honest as they come, admitted he really can't envision himself in another uniform. I'll bet Cashman can't, either.

• There's been a lot less rhetoric and publicity involving Carlos Guillen, who was the Tigers' best player last season and is also a free agent at year's end. And Guillen added a little levity to the situation, telling Tigers writers on Sunday, "I've got a new contract ... with Mizuno.'' Guillen, as underrated a player as there is in the game, left the impression there's currently a disagreement over the number of years but provided no other details on talks.

• Todd Walker may be taking a chance going to arbitration after the Padres acquired a third baseman (Kevin Kouzmanoff) and a second baseman (Marcus Giles). Should Walker win for $3.75 million, you'd think the Padres might consider waiving him and paying him the one-sixth early cut fee, or a little over $600,000. If he loses for $2.75 million, he might be safer.