Center field will be eye of the storm in winter market

Aaron Rowand is one of four outstanding center fielders who plan to test the free-agent market this offseason. AP

Also in this column:
• The right move for the Pirates
• Tigers may pass on I-Rod
• Time to worry about Mets?
• More news and notes

The center-field market is going to get crazy this winter. The way things look now, four players who fit into the "very good" or "great" categories -- including probable Hall of Famer Andruw Jones -- will be on the move.

There's been a breakdown in talks between the Twins and 32-year-old Torii Hunter, and negotiations never got off the ground for Jones, 30, in Atlanta. Even though both players have long suggested that their first choice is to remain with their original teams, the likelihood that either will stay put appears to be diminishing by the day.

If Alex Rodriguez is the main player of interest this winter, center field is the clear position of interest. In an otherwise spotty free-agent market, center field is easily the deepest spot. Aaron Rowand, 30, and Mike Cameron, 34, make it an impressive foursome of free agents at the position, as all four are superb defensively. It starts with Jones, an all-time great in center who's poised to have a stunning sixth season with 400 putouts (he's currently fifth in the majors with 377) despite rumors of having lost a step on defense.

His glossy resume notwithstanding, an off-year by Jones at the plate (25 HRs, 91 RBIs, .222 average) caused three front-office people out of four to suggest to SI.com that Hunter could eclipse Jones in a market that will still pay off huge for both players. It's the age-old debate: career vs. year. Jones is having the better career, Hunter the better year.

Two executives willing to put a crystal ball on the market predicted that both Jones and Hunter (28 HRs, 102 RBIs, .290) would receive deals in the $15-million-per-year range, and one said that he could see either getting a six- or seven-year deal, meaning that either could reach the $100 million mark. All the execs guessed that Rowand would exceed $10 million a year, and two thought that Cameron should score a deal for about $6-to-7 million (although a third executive said he loves Cameron so much that he should get $10 million, as well).

But those may be low estimates. Here are my two time-tested rules concerning guessing at free-agent contracts for stars: 1) Executives, often hopeful that their competitors will show rare restraint, often start way too low, and 2) In typical years, anyone really good will get 25 to 50 percent more than you think (which is what I call the Kevin Brown Rule, named after the surly pitcher who turned free agency into a lottery).

This in mind, I still could see Jones getting a deal in the $126-136 million range established by Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano. Jones, who has insisted to friends that he won't take a discounted deal to stay in Atlanta, is viewed as all but certain to test the market. Though he's been unceremoniously dropped to No. 7 in the Braves' American League-style batting order (costing him RBIs), one friend says he's one superstar with such a happy demeanor that even that won't affect his call too much. "That sort of thing doesn't bother him.''

Still, the lineup drop is an indicator of where the cost-conscious Braves might lean. Few baseball people believe that they will pony up for both Jones and recently--imported first baseman Mark Teixeira (Teixeira isn't a free agent until after 2008). Teixeira, the NL Player of the Month for August, has been everything they asked for. As one competitor says in regard to which player Atlanta is likely to retain, "Let's not forget, they traded their whole farm system for Teixeira.''

Jones is something of a wild card, though. He surprised folks by bucking his agent Scott Boras and re-signing with the Braves for six years, $75 million before the 2002 season, and this time he has thrown away the script for abject candor, telling SI.com this spring that he only wants to play where it's warm, all but eliminating New York, Boston and Chicago and causing close friends and ex-teammates to chide him good-naturedly for lessening his leverage.

Jones' real handicap, though, is a poor offensive season by his standards. Yet Boras, who is believed to have $20-million-plus in mind for an annual salary, says that he doesn't believe one year with a low batting average and slightly lower power numbers that could still wind up being in the 30-homer, 100-RBI range should be a major impediment when you examine Jones' entire career. Over the previous nine years Jones averaged 35 homers and 104 RBIs.

While Jones probably cost himself a few million with his slippage, Hunter has gained that and more with a strong season. The Twins recently offered a deal believed to be for $45 million over three years, a well-below market bid that inspired Hunter to say that not only was he was tired of waiting but that it's now time for the Twins to wait. Some are wondering whether GM Terry Ryan's sudden resignation could jump-start things, but the real obstacle still remains: the Twins' penny-pinching multibillionaire owners, a.k.a. the Pohlads.

Early speculation has Hunter going to the White Sox or Rangers, and indeed, Texas may be the best guess. There also has been word going around that the White Sox may try to bring back Rowand, an all-out hustler who timed his career year perfectly. The White Sox originally traded Rowand because they wrongly assumed his ceiling would match Brian Anderson's. While Anderson floundered, Rowand easily outperformed expectations (26 HRs, 87 RBIs, .316 this year). Beyond that, White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf is known to be a fan, and as we recently saw, that went a long way for manager Ozzie Guillen, who just signed a four-year extension despite a dreadful season. "That was all Jerry,'' one competitor says.

Meanwhile, Cameron (21 HRs, 78 RBIs, .245) quietly has put up a decent season in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. And while some might view him as the fourth option in this derby, one GM says, "Not me. I think he's a helluva player.''

A steal for the Pirates?

New Pirates CEO Frank Coonelly is surely disappointed to have been turned down by Chris Antonetti, an Indians executive, and Rick Hahn, a White Sox executive, for interviews for the Pirates GM job. Both Antonetti and Hahn love their current situations, and both have turned down previous GM chances, and their stars are bright enough that they can afford to wait for their dream job (the Pirates, who just clinched a 15th straight losing year, are hardly that).

But in actuality, someone such as Tony Bernazard, who did agree to an interview, may be the better fit, since scouting is his strength. Bernazard has been right in the middle of the Mets' many successes the past couple years (the past few days notwithstanding).

Around the Majors

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• There are some who believe that the Tigers may yet consider declining Ivan Rodriguez's $13 million option after his off-year -- although, no matter what the baseball people decide, it's possible that club owner Mike Ilitch, who pressed hard to bring Pudge to Detroit, may believe he can't do without him. (Reached by phone, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski said those calls will wait until after the season.) Expect the Mets to be first in line if Pudge becomes free. Rodriguez's longtime connection with Mets GM Omar Minaya could give them an edge.

• Memo to Willie Randolph: Don't forget, Guillermo Mota is off the juice now.

• This is no way for the Mets to finish out the year. But let's recall that the Tigers and Cardinals didn't exactly cover themselves in glory last September.

• As one Red Sox fan said to me, "I can handle Bucky Bleeping Dent or Aaron Bleeping Boone ... But Derek Jeter's litany of game-deciding hits vs. Boston are getting out of hand. The thing about Jeter is opponents freak out that he'll deliver a hit to opposite field, either a blooper or a gapper. Then, bam, you go inside and he muscles up and smokes one to left field.''' Of Jeter's 11 home runs this season, six have come vs. Boston.

• And how does Clemens come up with these good outings vs. Boston? In two starts and 12 innings, he has allowed four hits and one run despite eight walks and just six K's (for a 0.75 ERA).

• The Red Sox may need to return Eric Gagne to high-leverage situations. They're going to need him. Meanwhile, according to early reports (which he later refuted), Gagne did recently make a contribution to Boston's cause; according to the reports, he accidentally hit Mariano Rivera in both his pinkies (how's that for a shot?) with an errant throw from the Boston bullpen, causing Rivera's uncharacteristic wildness in the ninth Sunday. However, Gagne later corrected the reports, saying the misguided throw came from another Red Sox reliever, Devern Hansack.

• Philly could really get dangerous now that Ryan Howard has joined the party. Before homering twice on Monday in a 13-11 win over the Cardinals, he was batting .161 this month.

• Things finally appear to have caught up with the Cards. The lesson here is, you can't let 60 percent of your pitching rotation leave without capable replacements and think you can continue to thrive, no matter what division you're in.

• My vote on the Bonds 756 home run ball is partly a write-in vote. Put it in Cooperstown, but have flaxseed oil accompany it in the display.