GMs await their chance to deal for a bona fide ace

The longer it takes Minnesota to reach a deal with Johan Santana, the more likely it appears the Twins will trade their ace. AP

By Jon Heyman, SI.com

ORLANDO, Fla. -- The Twins recently reopened negotiations with star pitcher Johan Santana, and in the likely event that the cost-conscious, small-market team fails to sign him soon, it is expected that baseball's best pitcher will hit the trade market.

Several competing general managers here said they are awaiting such a scenario and implied that they are ready to pounce on such a rare opportunity to land a clear ace.

The Twins recently have made Santana an offer, and the buzz going around the general manger meetings here is that Santana is unlikely to come to a quick agreement and much more likely to be traded. The availability of Santana would resurrect a weak pitching market.

The Twins are still talking to Santana, according to a league source. But multiple GMs here predicted that the Twins' chances to re-sign Santana, who can be a free agent after the 2008 season, are slim.

Sports Illustrated reported early in the season that the Twins offered Santana an extension for two years and an option for about $18 million per year, an offer that seemed quite low for a pitcher of his stature even at the time. The Twins' offers to free agents Torii Hunter ($45 million for three years) and Carlos Silva ($20 million for three years) also seem light in this thin market.

The top contract for a pitcher on a multiyear deal are Barry Zito's $126 million, seven-year contract and Carlos Zambrano's five-year, $91.5 million deal. But Santana is expected to receive $150 million or more as a free agent next year.

Mets GM Omar Minaya said in his press briefing on Thursday morning that he now believed top pitchers would be available. Minaya didn't say who he was referring to, but it appears that Marlins star Dontrelle Willis, who struggled badly in 2007 (10-15, 5.17 ERA), may be available as well.

Phillies GM Pat Gillick predicted on Thursday in USA Today that Santana "will be traded,'' though Gillick didn't explain how he came to that conclusion. It isn't believed that the Twins have begun taking trade offers yet.

In response to Gillick's short quote, a Twins official pointed out that "that isn't his player,'' and there's no way Gillick or anyone else could know that. Twins GM Bill Smith declined comment on Gillick's remark.

Santana's agent, Peter Greenberg, is out of the country and could not immediately be reached for comment.

Should Santana become available, the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Red Sox, Cubs and Mariners would be expected to be among the chief pursuers. The Twins, who have done a terrific scouting job over the years, would be expected to request a stash of young players in return.