Earnhardt, Jr.'s season hinges on Las Vegas run

	Just as it appeared Dale Earnhardt, Jr.'s chronic engine troubles were a thing of the past, they doomed him again in California. Robert Laberge/Getty Images for NASCAR

For a fleeting moment, Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s team was back in championship form. Two Sundays ago on Feb. 25, Little E suffered a flat tire in the early laps of the Auto Club 500 at California Speedway. But when he roared back onto the 1.5-mile track, his No. 8 Bud Chevy was as fast as any car in the field. He even blew past Matt Kenseth, the eventual race winner. For a handful of laps, the red-clad masses in Fontana were on their feet as Earnhardt charged around the oval.

Over the last two years Earnhardt has consistently complained that the engines at Dale Earnhardt Inc. have been underpowered. He simply hasn't possessed the raw speed under the hood to be competitive with the cars in the Hendrick, Roush and Gibbs organizations. Why does Little E virtually always take the high-line around a track? It's not because he enjoys it, as some analysts would have you believe, it's because he has stay on the throttle as long as he can to keep his RPMs as high as possible.

But at California, under a cold gray sky, those engine woes appeared to be a thing of the past. Then, in an instant, it all blew up. Literally. Junior's motor blew, just as the motor in the car of Martin Truex, Junior's DEI teammate, had earlier in the race. For the second straight week, Earnhardt failed to finish the race and now, as the NASCAR circuit heads to Las Vegas this weekend for Sunday's UAW-DaimlerChrysler 400, Little E is stuck in 40th place in the points standings.

No driver has ever qualified for the Chase while being mired in such a deep a hole after two races, which makes Sunday's event a critical one for the No. 8 team. Junior has had fast cars in both of the first two races, and he does have a bit of history on his side: Three times in his career he's suffered back-to-back 40th or worse place finishes, and in each case he's responded with a top-flight run, notching two wins and a sixth-place finish in the event immediately following his two-race funk.

Yet Earnhardt has struggled at Las Vegas recently. In his last three starts at the 1.5-mile track, he's finished no higher than 27th and started no higher than 26th. But banking was added into the turns during the offseason, and this should play into Little E's favor. Las Vegas now resembles Texas Motor Speedway, and at Texas Earnhardt has seven top-10 finishes in nine career starts.

Will he win on Sunday? Nope. But he will author a solid top-five run, which will put his season back on track.

Decisive Factors UAW-DaimlerChrysler 400 Three key elements to watch for at this weekend's Nextel Cup race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway Kasey Kahne should be the driver to beat on Sunday. He dominated the speed chart during the test session at Las Vegas over the winter before he crashed into the wall. Kahne was the series' top driver on the intermediate tracks last season, and he'll flex plenty of muscle on Sunday. As I mentioned in the magazine this week, Kyle Busch has been one of the early surprises of the season. He displayed impressive speed at both Daytona and California, and he should again be fast at Las Vegas, his hometown, where he was impressive during the January test session. Busch and his crew chief, Alan Gustafason, are poised to become one of the elite driver-crew chiefs combo in the garage -- and, perhaps, become the marquee team at Hendrick Motorsports. One of the big issues that will dominate the chatter in the garage this weekend will be the increased banking at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The turns were raised from 12 degrees to 20, which will increase the speeds at the track. But during the test session it appeared that there were only two grooves on the track. Tony Stewart, for one, thinks the race is going to be a single-file yawner. The redesign was done to specifically create more opportunities for passing and side-by-side racing; we'll see on Sunday whether or not that goal was achieved.

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