Solid Lowe's run often pivotal in determining Cup title

Clint Bowyer could emerge from Lowe's as the only non-Hendrick driver with a realistic chance to win the 2007 title. John Harrelson/Getty Images for NASCAR

NASCAR is only in Year 4 of its Chase for the Championship era, so there's not a lot data from which to decipher historical trends. Still, looking back at the first three seasons of the Chase, this much appears to be certain: To have a realistic shot at the Cup, a driver needs to be within 75 points of first-place after the checkered flag waves at Lowe's Motor Speedway on Saturday night, a race that will mark halfway point of NASCAR's postseason.

Flip open the record book. In 2004 Kurt Busch finished fourth at Charlotte and took a 24-point lead in the standings -- a lead he never surrendered. The next season Jimmie Johnson won at Lowe's while Tony Stewart came in 25th; afterward, the two were tied for first in the standings. The duo then waged a head-to-head battle for the title over the final races of the season. No other driver mounted a serious charge.

Last year Johnson finished second at Charlotte, but still trailed Chase leader Jeff Burton by 146 points after the race. Johnson then went on an historical tear over the next four events, winning once and coming in second three times. This hot streak allowed Johnson to close the gap and, eventually, pull away from the field over the last three weeks of the season.

So far, '07 is looking a lot like '05, when Johnson and Stewart were clearly the two top drivers in the championship field. This year Johnson and Jeff Gordon have already established themselves as a cut above everyone else in the Chase. Gordon currently owns a nine-point lead over Johnson in the standings and a 63-point edge over Clint Bowyer, who's in third place. The fourth-place driver, Stewart, is 154 points in back of Gordon.

So why do I think a driver needs to be within 75 points of the leader after Saturday night to have a credible shot at the Cup, even though Johnson overcame a 146-point hole at this same time last year? Simple: Because this season there's two drivers -- not one -- that have been ruthlessly consistent all season, and they're both at the top of the standings. So it's unlikely that both Gordon and Johnson will encounter bad luck over the final weeks of the season and suffer, say, a points-killing 35th place or worse finish, which would be the only way for a driver who's buried in the standings to have a chance at the title in Homestead on Nov. 18th.

As for me, I still like Johnson to win it all -- and also to take the checkers on Saturday night.

Decisive Factors Bank of America 500 Three key elements to watch for at this weekend's Nextel Cup race at Lowe's Motor Speedway Hendrick Motorsports, whose headquarters are located a stone's throw from Lowe's Motor Speedway, absolutely owns this track. A Hendrick driver has won six of the last nine races at Lowe's, including five victories by Jimmie Johnson-the man to beat on Saturday night. Keep an eye on the fleet of Toyotas. After struggling for most of the season, Toyota is finally coming alive. Last week at Talladega a Toyota driver captured the pole (Michael Waltrip) and a Toyota finished third (Dave Blaney). In May Brian Vickers, who pilots the No. 83 Toyota, came in fifth at Charlotte, which was his best finish of the season. Considering the success that the top two drivers in the standings have had at Charlotte -- Jeff Gordon has won four times here; Johnson five -- this is an extremely important race for Clint Bowyer. Currently third in the standings, Bowyer can make a statement on Saturday night with a strong run that he's a legit title contender. But this won't be easy for him. Not only is Lowe's Motor Speedway Hendrick's backyard track, it's also a place where Bowyer hasn't had much success in the past. In three career starts here, he's never finished higher than 19th.