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| NCAA Basketball Power Rankings |
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There was much rejoicing in the number-crunching underworld of college basketball this week over the launch of Basketball Prospectus, the hoops arm of new-age statistical gurus Baseball Prospectus. Hoyas fans in particular should appreciate BP's perspective, as it tends to justify why John Thompson III's offense is so effective without scoring many points (it's all about efficiency, not speed). One of the site's first pieces -- by familiar face Ken Pomeroy -- dealt with possession "usage." The premise: that guys who begin their careers as freshman role players are statistically unlikely to take on greatly expanded roles in their second or third seasons. Good thing for Dajuan Summers, the sophomore forward who Georgetown is hoping can fill some of Jeff Green's scoring void: He used 22.0 percent of the Hoyas' possessions while he was on the floor, which was the third-highest rate on the team and suggests that he could reasonably approach Green's junior mark of 24.9 percent. Starting guards Jessie Sapp and Jonathan Wallace -- who used 18.7 and 18.9 percent of possessions last season, respectively -- are far less likely to pick up the slack.
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Rick Pitino has Steve Kragthorpe's back. Pitino used his speech at the basketball team's annual tipoff luncheon this week as a forum to defend the Cardinals' first-year football coach, coming down hard on fans who have been booing during the 'Ville's 3-3 start on the gridiron. "All of a sudden I thought I was walking into Rupp Arena -- me, personally -- when I heard all the boos," Pitino said, according to the Louisville Courier-Journal. "Obviously, they weren't playing well ... but I couldn't believe what I was listening to, the displeasure and dissatisfaction of all of you." Meanwhile, on his Web site, Pitino's primary concern continues to be jumbo power forward Derrick Caracter, who's apparently not yet in peak physical condition. Referencing a practice from last month, Pitino said of Caracter, "He has never been in great shape in his life, but that's his key to greatness."
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I'm intrigued by this Taylor Rochestie story less for its heartwarming qualities than for its potential to start a trend. If you missed it last week, Wazzu announced that Rochestie, a junior guard and likely starter this season, is voluntarily giving up his scholarship for his senior season and paying nearly $25,000 of out-of-state tuition as a walk-on. Why? So the Cougars could free up a spot for Marcus Capers, a 6-4 guard from Monteverde Academy in Florida, to join the team in 2008-09. This selfless arrangement was made possible because Rochestie's pops is a well-off financial manager in Santa Barbara, Calif., and it begs the question: Will "making upper-class kids pay tuition to free up extra scholarships" be the next popular loophole to exploit in college hoops? Could Florida have convinced Yannick Noah to pony up for Jo's tuition last year, to put another freshman apprentice on the Gators' roster?
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The Golden Eagles' Jerel McNeal was the most recent Blog Q&A subject, and he shed light on the Golden Eagles' martial-arts training: "Coach [Crean] has all these black belts coming in to the gym and teaching us Tae Kwon Do twice a week for about an hour." Although McNeal says they try to refrain from hand-to-hand combat, my first thought after reading Tuesday's news that 6-7, 240-pound forward Trevor Mbakwe was ruled academically eligible was, I really hope none of the guards are paired up with him in Tae Kwon Do. Second thought: Mbakwe is a huge addition, given Marquette's dire need of a physical post presence.
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Continuing that "usage" discussion from the Georgetown blurb: It often seemed, watching Spartans games last season, that Drew Neitzel was taking two-thirds of the shots. Yet MSU's usage breakdown shows that then-freshman Raymar Morgan used almost the exact volume of possessions (25.4 percent) that the Neitzilla did (25.6 percent). Morgan's scoring output was much smaller (11.7 per game to Neitzel's 18.1) for two reasons: he played fewer minutes than Neitzel (55.1 percent to 89.2 percent) and Morgan's offensive efficiency rating was significantly lower (96.5 to 119.0). Morgan's usage rate should drop some -- but, according to Pomeroy's studies, likely not too far -- as the Spartans add new weapons. Morgan's minutes and efficiency should naturally improve, though, which means his scoring output will rise.
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