Gordon looks for type of comeback he's already seen

Jeff Gordon's 30-point deficit heading into Phoenix isn't so bad compared to the 278-point deficit Alan Kulwicki overcame during the last six races of the 1992 season. AP

If NASCAR history is any indication, Jimmie Johnson is just two races away from becoming the first driver to win back-to-back Nextel Cup championships since 1998. The past tells us that Jeff Gordon, the last repeat champion and the driver in the best position to dethrone Johnson, faces an uphill battle.

Fortunately for Gordon, he knows a little bit about NASCAR history and beating the odds.

Gordon led the standings for most of the season, but is 30 points behind Johnson with races remaining in Phoenix and Florida. Making up that many points is not difficult; all it takes is a blown tire, a dumb move by a lapped driver or some other piece of bad luck for Johnson. Thing is, those types of mishaps just haven't happened very often at the end of a Nextel Cup season to the driver on top of the standings.

A come-from-behind championship, like Gordon needs, has only happened twice in NASCAR's Modern Era (since '75). And it's never happened in the three-year history of the Chase, a playoff format designed to create just such comebacks.

First and foremost, what the record books tell us is that many of NASCAR's closest points battles weren't really that much of a debate. About a third of the time, the champion clinches before the last race of the year. And even when they don't have it mathematically clinched, the leader often plays it safe. Meanwhile, the challenger goes for broke and the final results are often misleading.

In '97, for example, Gordon went into the season finale at Atlanta leading Dale Jarrett by 77 points and Mark Martin by 87. Gordon took it easy and finished 17th, while Jarrett and Martin ran up front and eventually finished second and third, respectively. So while the final standings makes it look like one of the closest finishes in history -- Jarrett finished 14 points behind Gordon and Martin 29 -- the outcome was never in doubt.

Even closer was the '89 finish, Rusty Wallace led Dale Earnhardt by 109 points with two races left. Wallace ended the season by coasting to a 16th and 15th, while Earnhardt scrambled to a sixth and a first. Wallace still won by 12 points.

The three-year-old Chase playoff format has produced close finishes and season finales with several drivers having a mathematical shot at the title. However, no one has rallied in the final two races.

In the first year of the Chase, Kurt Busch held a 41-point lead over second-place Gordon with two races remaining. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (47 points behind) and Johnson (48) were also in range. Heading into the season finale, Busch led Johnson by 18 and Gordon by 20.

Johnson finished second in the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami, while Gordon finished third. But Busch finished fifth and led a lap, making his final lead eight over Johnson and 16 over Gordon.

In 2005, Tony Stewart led second-place Johnson by 35 points with two races to go. In Phoenix, Stewart upped his lead to 52. But Johnson suffered a blown tire early in the season finale and dropped to fifth in the final standings, while Stewart finished 35 points ahead of Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards.

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