Which NFL assistant can duplicate Payton's success?

	Bears defensive coordinator Ron Rivera appears to be the favorite to take over the Cardinals' head-coaching job. JC Ridley/WireImage
	MAILBAG Submit a comment or question for Michael. Your name: Your e-mail address: Your home town: Enter your question:

IRVING, Texas -- Terence Newman saw the smirk, and he knew he was staring into a future of frustration. Newman, then a rookie cornerback for the Cowboys, immediately noticed the cleverer-than-thou, confident manner in which Sean Payton, the team's first-year assistant head coach, carried himself and sensed that he was looking at someone who'd one day be a successful NFL head coach.

"I remember my rookie year, we were about to play the Giants, where he'd been [an assistant] before, and he was so damn confident," Newman said Wednesday as the Cowobys prepared for their wild-card game against the Seahawks. "He was just arrogant -- not in a bad way, but like he knew his stuff.  He was very vocal -- he used to scream out during practice -- but at the same time he respected his players."

Sure enough, three years later, Payton came back to bite Newman and the Cowboys in the hindquarters, toying with the Dallas defense in 42-17 win on Dec. 10. Now Payton, in his first year as a head coach, is a lock for NFL coach of the year honors, and the Saints have a first-round bye and legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.

The question is, with five coaching vacancies (Steelers, Raiders, Cardinals, Falcons, Saban Enablers ... er, Dolphins), which current NFL assistant has the best chance to be next year's Sean Payton? Based on conversations with general managers, coaches, players and scouts, as well as personal experience with some of the men in question, here's a list (which, by definition, excludes former NFL head coaches) that is by no means exhaustive and is somewhat intuitive. First up:

The Fab Five

1) Ron Rivera, Bears defensive coordinator: Having presided over the league's most fearsome defense for the past two seasons, Rivera has emerged as a prime candidate after years of toiling in the shadows. He believes his status as a former player (he was a Bears linebacker from 1984 to '92) hurt him in that regard. "One of the things you learn right away as a former players is that people think you're coddled still," Rivera told me last month. "They question whether you'll put in the work it takes to be a successful coach. Dave Wannstedt gave me my chance as a volunteer assistant [with the Bears], and then Andy Reid gave me my first position [as the Eagles' linebackers coach]. Now Coach [Lovie] Smith is helping to complete my education, and it's been tremendous."

Rivera's highly effective defensive philosophy is to take complex situations and make them as simple as possible for his players. This gives Chicago's veterans the freedom to swarm to the ball with unfettered abandon and allows rookies and other newcomers to thrive more readily in his scheme than they would in many others. "We teach concepts," Rivera explained. "That way, they're not learning things through rote memorization. We have 16 basic concepts that pertain to coverages, fronts and blitzes, and if you understand those, you can apply them to different things that you see and you should be able to play with a limited amount of experience."

When I mentioned Rivera's approach to Bill Belichick --  a man who, it should be noted, does not often go out of his way to extol the virtues of other coaches -- his eyes gleamed like a Nantucket lighthouse. "I couldn't agree more with that type of philosophy," he said. "Once players understand concepts, you have the flexibility to interweave the concepts into sound, fundamental plays that deal with the concepts an offense throws at you. If you can take 75 plays and boil them into 10 concepts, then a player only needs to learn 10 things before he can get out on the field."

Rivera is a forceful leader who does not appear to be a control freak, and he commands the respect of his players. "I think he's a great coach," says Brian Urlacher, the Bears' star middle linebacker. "He relates really well to the players, because he played for such a long time, and because he's such a smart dude. When we really screw up he lets us know, but he doesn't really bitch-coach, which is nice. He understands protections and how to attack them, and he wants us to know why we're doing stuff, which is good. Our defense is pretty simple -- you just have to be detailed in what you do. We play fast and we get to the football, man. I hope he gets a job, but it's gonna suck if we lose him."

On Wednesday Cardinals president Michael Bidwill and general manager Rod Graves interviewed Rivera in the Chicago area; league rules allow him to interview through the end of this week, but not again until after the Bears are done playing. Don't believe all the Pete Carroll talk -- Rivera is the odds-on favorite to get the Arizona job. Bidwill, who just signed Graves to a three-year contract extension, is not the type to give total control to a coach, which Carroll undoubtedly would seek. Graves and Rivera worked together in Chicago years ago, and he'd be the ideal leader to instill toughness and take this talented team out of the depths of protracted failure.

Most likely destination: Arizona.